Tornado Warning 49, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
310 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 1996

UPR TRF FROM NE TO SW ACRS THE FA THIS AFTN CONTS TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD
WITH SHWRS/TSTMS CONTG OVER SERN ZONES THIS AFTN.  WK SFC FNT PUSHED
INTO WRN SECS OF THE FA THIS MRNG AND SHOWS UP ON MESONET DATA FROM ARND
PNC TO KINGFISHER TO ERICK. WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE W THIS AFTN AMS
HAS DESTABILIZED AND EXPECT THIS BNDRY TO BE FOCUS FOR REDVLPMNT THIS
AFTN AND EVE. 88D SHOWS SOME ACTIVITY ALRDY DVLPG ALG THIS BNDRY THIS
AFTN AND EXPECT THIS TO CONT. SERN OK. BEYOND TONIGHT AVN/NGM SIM WITH
MOVMT OF UPR TROF GRDLY SHIFTING IT EWD THROUGH THE PD. WL CONT WITH
HIEST POPS IN THE SE SUNDAY AHD OF THE UPR TROF. AVN/NGM SHOW WK S/W
MOVING EWD THROUGH ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT/MON MRNG. WITH LO LVL
CONVERGENCE ALG THE LEE TROF CUD SEE SOME TSTM DVLPMNT TO OUR NW SUNDAY
AFTN AND EVE WHICH CUD REACH NWRN ZONES. THUS WILL INCLUDE POPS FOR THE
NW SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY.

FCSTID = 02
OKC   68  89  71  90 /  40  20  10  10
HBR   67  90  72  91 /  40  20  10  10
SPS   71  93  72  94 /  40  20  10  10
GAG   63  90  70  91 /  20  10  20  20
PNC   70  88  73  90 /  20  20  10  10
DUA   72  87  73  90 /  40  30  30  20

.OKC...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ008>025-027>029-033>039-044-045-TXZ083>090-172130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1235 PM CDT SAT AUG 17 1996

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS. THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
SHATTUCK TO PERRY...AND WEST OF A LINE FROM PERRY TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO
DUNCAN TO HENRIETTA TEXAS. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WINDS TO 65 MPH...MAY DEVELOP IN THE SLIGHT
RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM BLACKWELL TO
WATONGA THEN WESTWARD TO NEAR SAYRE. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY
BY MID-AFTERNOON. IN THE MEANTIME...WARMING AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL CAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE CREATING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM MOST ANYWHERE...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR
THUNDERSTORM DVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY
FRONT...WITH STORMS SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE EVENING.  A FEW
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...STRONG WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DA