Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS Kansas City, MO

NORTHWEST MISSOURI FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
325 AM CST SUN MAR 24 1996

TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 8PM FOR EAX CWA...

MDT CAPE WITH LN OF TRW MOVING AHEAD OF FNT...MID/UPR LVL JET MAIN
FEATURE ON SVR POTENTIAL...STEEPENING LAPSE RATE WILL BRING POTENTIAL
FOR HAIL AS SFC FRONT INTERACTS WITH RICH THETA-E AIR OVR WRN AND NRN
MO. BEST DIRECTION SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO SRN 1/3 OF
CWA...SO ANTICIPATE BEST SVR THREAT WILL BE S OF A PAOLA-RICHMOND-IRK
LINE BY LATE AFTN EARLY EVE.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CLD BREAK WITH DRY LN...EXPECT CWA TO REMAIN
CLOUD COVERED OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BEING MET W OF
ATCHISON KS...WORTH CO. MO LINE BY 09Z. WOULD EXPECT WRN 1/2 OF CWA TO
BE UNDER A WIND ADVISORY DURING MON AM HOURS. WITH LOW PULLING AWAY
INTO GREAT LAKES...GRADIENT SHOULD LESSEN TO BLO WIND ADVSRY CRITERIA
DURING MON PM.

SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY AFT MID OVR NWRN CORNER OF CWA...MOVING INTO THE
REST OF THE CWA BY 12Z TO 18Z MON. DO NOT EXPECT ACCUMULATION AT THIS
TIME...BUT VISIBILITIES BY BE REDUCED SLIGHTLY.

PREFER SLIGHTLY COLDER TEMPS THAN NGM/AVN...SO WILL LIKELY GO JUST
UNDER MOS GUIDANCE FOR MINS TONIGHT...MAXES TOMORROW.

MCI 24/31 74

SMITH

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KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
116 PM CST SUN MAR 24 1996

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
CENTRAL MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE REST OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
...A WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR TODAY...

FORECAST...THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM MIDDLE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT SOUTH OF A MACON TO BUTLER LINE...WHERE THERE IS A
MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. IN ADDITION...ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH HAS ALSO PROMPTED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE
STATE OF MISSOURI FOR TODAY.

DISCUSSION...A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER
NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA BY EARLY EVENING. VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE TO DRAW INCREASING MOISTURE NORTHWARD...RESULTING IN AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. IN
ADDITION A BELT OF VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL MOVE QUICKLY FROM NEW
MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI BY THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINATION OF A
DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS...AND AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY TRIGGER A SQUALL LINE OF SEVERE THRUNDERSTORMS
BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS SQUALL LINE WILL THEN MARCH EAST INTO MISSOURI WITH
INDIVIDUAL STORMS RACING NORTHEAST AT 45 TO 50 MPH. BY MID AFTERNOON
THE COLD FRONT WILL REACH WESTERN MISSOURI AND FINALLY EXIT THE
OUTLOOK AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING AND SKYWARN SPOTTER...CIVIL DEFENSE COORDINATORS AND HAM RADIO
OPERATORS SHOULD KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST WEATHER CONDITIONS BY
MONITORING NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISON STATIONS
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES AND STATEMENTS.

*** NOTICE ***

A BAN ON ALL OPEN BURNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL COUNTIES IN
KANSAS. THE KANSAS CITY FIRE DEPARTMENT HAS ALSO SUSPENDED THE
ISSUANCE OF OUTDOOR BURNING PERMITS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...MARCH
24TH.
PERSONS ARE URGED TO REFRAIN FROM ANY AND ALL FORMS OF OUTDOOR
BURNING...AND PROPERLY DISPOSE OF ALL SMOKING MATERIALS IN ASHTRAYS OR
OTHER APPROVED RECEPTACLES. OFF-ROAD DRIVING IS ALSO DISCOURAGED.

SMITH