Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT SUN APR 16 1995

NOT MUCH TIME FOR DISCUSSION WITH SEVERE WEATHER MOVING INTO THE NW
PART OF THE FCST AREA. LIKED THE ETA MODEL THE BEST WITH THE MORE SRN
TRACK OF THE SFC LOW AND IT MAY EVEN GO FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE ETA
INITIALLY. POSITION BY 48 HOURS IS PROBABLY CLOSE THOUGH. WEAK SFC LOW
NEAR EMP AT 20Z WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND ALLOW THE
COLD FRONT TO DROP DOWN INTO NE OK OVERNIGHT. PROBLEM IS IN DETERMINING
HOW FAR SOUTH THIS FRONT WILL GO BEFORE STALLING EARLY MONDAY. BEST
GUESS NOW IS NEAR TULSA. WILL GO LIKELY POPS IN NE OK TONIGHT AND TAPER
DOWN TO JUST 20% IN EXTREME SE OK.

FRONT WILL MOVE BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY AS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES
OUT OF THE ROCKIES IN THE WRN PLAINS. DRYLINE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL OK
BY AFTERNOON AND PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE MONDAY
NIGHT AND SWEEP ACROSS ALL OF ERN OK BY EARLY TUESDAY. GUIDANCE POPS
TOO LOW AS WIDESPREAD TSTMS EXPECTED IN THE VERY JUICY AIR EAST OF THE
DRYLINE. A SQUALL LINE IS ALSO LIKELY TO DEVELOP RIGHT ALONG THE
DRYLINE SO WILL HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS MONDAY AND LIKELY POPS
MONDAY NIGHT EXCEPT IN THE FAR WRN ZONES WHERE THE DRYLINE WILL BE
CLOSE BY 00Z.

WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS IN FAR SE
OK TUESDAY BUT OTHERWISE TUESDAY LOOKS MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD ALBEIT A
BIT ON THE WINDY SIDE.

GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE EXCEPT SEEM MUCH TOO WARM FOR MINS
MONDAY NIGHT.

TUL 62/75/45/73  6950   FSM 64/78/48/77  3761   MLC 67/78/46/76  3850
BVO 58/73/42/72  6940   FYV 62/77/44/72  586-   IDB 65/78/50/79  2662
BYV 61/77/45/72  4861

.TUL...NONE.

PLATE

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-171200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
115 PM CDT SUN APR 16 1995

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS. THE
RISK AREA IS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM BRISTOW TO TAHLEQUAH
TO FAYETTEVILLE. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE MONDAY.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A SURFACE FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF
EMPORIA KANSAS TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW NORTH OF WICHITA. THE FRONT
THEN EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT THE ATMOSPHERE IS UNSTABLE...BUT A WARM LAYER OF AIR BETWEEN
5000 AND 10000 FEET IS PROVIDING A CAP FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WILL MINIMIZE HEATING TODAY.
THUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND BE
LOCATED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY
MORNING. THIS AREA IS WHERE THE CAP IS WEAKEST. CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE FRONT COMBINED WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL
FOR TORNADOES...WILL OCCUR MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS PUSHING A DRYLINE EASTWARD ACROSS
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ALREADY IN PLACE...AND AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE WIND PROFILE...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE VERY ACTIVE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE RISK AREA
SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND BE PREPARED FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TONIGHT. CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCIES AND STORM
SPOTTER GROUPS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
SHOULD LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOKS AND BE
PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION MONDAY.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-029-OKZ054>077-171200-

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
230 PM CDT SUN APR 16 1995

...UPDATE...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE RISK AREA IS
WEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTH COFFEYVILLE IN NOWATA COUNTY TO MILFAY IN
CREEK COUNTY. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR OSAGE...PAWNEE...
WASHINGTON...NOWATA AND CREEK COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM.

A WEAKENING CAP AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE MID LEVELS COMBINED
WITH A FRONT STRETCHING FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS HAS RESULTED IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA...SEVERAL OF WHICH HAVE BEEN
SEVERE. THESE STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AND MAY AFFECT PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN AREAS TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF TULSA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
TORNADOES.

CIVIL DEFENSE AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE TORNADO
WATCH AREA SHOULD BE ACTIVATING NOW.

THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDEdRSTORMS TONIGHT FOR
NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS NORTH OF
A LINE FROM BRISTOW TO TAHLEQUAH TO FAYETTEVILLE.