Tornado Warning 4, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY-RUSKIN, FL
203 AM EDT MON JUN 12 1995

MDLS IN AGREEMENT WITH CD FNT MVG THRU THE PNHNDL BY TON AND THEN SLWG
AS IT MVS ACRS THE CNTRL PENINSULA TUE. INITIAL SHOT OF PVA THIS AFT
AND TON. MAIN VORT MAX ROTATING INTO THE BASE OF THE TROF MON NIGHT
WITH SECOND SHOT OF PVA ACRS FA BY MIDDAY TUE. GD ISENTROPIC LIFT
ALONG CSTL ZONES TDY SPRDG INLAND TON. STRG CAA ALF FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR ON TUE WILL AID TSTM DVLPMNT FROM TPA SOUTH...AND CANT RULE OUT
ISOLD TSTMS N. WITH COLD AIR ALF...HAIL POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR TUE.
AS FOR SVR POT TDY...WNDS INCRS ALF FRM THE W BUT WITH NO SIG DIR SHR.
SOME SPD SHR DVLPS BUT NOT MUCH. AND WE DONT HAVE THE DRY AIR IN THE
LWR LAYERS LIKE TWO DAYS AGO TO CREATE A HIGH DOWNRUSH POTENTIAL. SO
ONLY SEE PSBL STRG STRMS ATTM WITH WNDS TO 35 MPH AND PSBL SMALL HAIL.
WITH WESTERLY WNDS...A COUPLE WATERSPOUTS ARE LIKELY. BETTER CHC OF
SVR WX ON TUE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AS CAA ALF INCRSES HAIL POTENTIAL. BUT
CANT IGNORE FACT THAT SYSTEM HAS PRODUCED ALOT OF SVR WX LAST CPL DAYS
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN US. WEST WINDS TO BEGIN TO DOMINATE
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD SO WIDELY SCATTERED LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL DVLP ALONG THE CSTL ZNS. FWC TEMPS LK GD
BUT WILL UP POPS.

@1 LEVY CITRUS HERNANDO SUMTER
@2 PASCO PINELLAS HILLSBOROUGH MANATEE
@3 POLK HARDEE DESOTO HIGHLANDS
@4 SARSOTA CHARLOTTE LEE

TPA TB 89/74/87/6:9 136341

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-161930-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT MON JUN 12 1995

     ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TODAY AND APPROACH THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
SURFACE HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL
HAIL...AND WATERSPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

BOATERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. STORM
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO PASS ALONG ANY WEATHER RELATED REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

OGLESBY

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-504-505-161930-

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA RUSKIN FL
600 AM EDT MON JUN 12 1995

     ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE...WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
TODAY AND APPROACH THE PENINSULA TONIGHT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG
SURFACE HEATING...A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...
COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT...AND THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...DEADLY LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...SMALL
HAIL...AND WATERSPOUTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

BOATERS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOK OUT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS. IF
THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES...SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY. STORM
SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO PASS ALONG ANY WEATHER RELATED REPORTS TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN RUSKIN.

OGLESBY