Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO ADD CAUTION ON LKS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OKLAHOMA
445 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 1995

LOOKS AS IF ALL IS STILL ..GO.. FOR WILD WX TDA ACRS MUCH OF THE FA.
SVR TSTMS CERTAINLY PSBL ALMOST ANYWHERE IN THE FA TDA...AND IN THE E
THIS EVE.  HAVE ELECTED TO REISSUE FFA FOR TODAY FOR CNTRL...S
CNTRL...AND SERN OK...PLUS CLAY COUNTY IN TX.  THIS AREA HAS COMBO OF
LOWEST FF GDNC... MAX QPF...AND MOST RNFL YDA.  ALTHO STMS SHOULD MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY... THE MSTR SUPPLY COULD EASILY BE ENUF FOR RNFL RATES
WELL IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HR.

WV IMGRY HAS SVRL INTERESTING FTRS.  THE TROP CONCTN CONTS ACRS THE SERN
1/2 OF TX AND APPEARS POISED TO WRAP BACK NW INTO CNTRL AND ERN OK TDA.
THERE ALSO APPEARS TO BE A DVLPG WAVE IN N CNTRL MEXICO THAT SHOULD MOVE
NE TWD OUR SWRN ZNS THIS MRNG.  IT IS PSBL THAT THIS WV WL PRODUCE ANTHR
TSTM COMPLEX THAT WL SPRD ACRS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FA TDA.  ANTHR
FTR APPEARS TO BE A JET STRK W OF BAJA CA AND MAY BE ABLE TO AFFECT THE
FA THIS AFTN OR EVE.  FNLY...THE MCC OVR THE PNHDLS IS CAUSING SUBSDNC
IN THE AREA SURRNDG IT.  THIS WL INHIBIT PCPN OVR MOST OF THE WRN PT OF
THE FA ERLY THIS MRNG...XCPT FOR THE SHWRS WITHIN THE CMPLX ITSELF.  DO
XPCT A FAIRLY RAPID RCVRY FM THE STABLE CONDS THO.

OTHER PSBL SCENARIO IS THAT STMS WL DVLP THIS AFTN AS DRYLN WORKS E FM
WRN TX.  THIS WOULD RSLT IN A SQUALL LN TRAVERSG THE FA FM W TO
E...PRBLY THIS AFTN AND ERLY EVE.

IN ANY CASE...IT APPEARS NRLY CERTAIN THAT THE ERN 1/2 OF THE FA WL HAVE
SIG PCPN.  HAVE GONE WITH THE 1-DOUBLE-0 POP IN THOSE LOCATIONS.  PCPN
SHOULD WIND DOWN SOME THIS EVE...AND LINGER ONLY IN THE FAR SE TNGT.
THE DRYLN/CDFNT COMBO SHOULD STALL ACRS ERN OK AND WL MAINTAIN LOW TO
CHC POPS THRU MON NGT THERE.  WRPARND LGT SHWRS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
IN N EITHER ON MON NGT.

HAVE ALSO OPTED FOR A 2ND PD WND ADVSRY IN NW.  MODELS IN SCARILY GOOD
AGRMT IN MOST RESPECTS...INCLDG DVLPMT AND LOCATION OF SFC LOW.  GRDNT
LOOKS TIGHT ENUF FOR 20 TO 30 MPH WND TNGT AND MON IN NW.  MAY EVEN SEE
25 TO 35 MPH THERE ON MON.  AM NOT QUITE CONFIDENT ENUF TO GO WITH A 3RD
PD ADVSRY HWVR....

MOST GDNC TEMPS LOOK OK...BUT COULD NOT JUSTIFY UPPER 70S AT PNC TDA.

ICWF HAS A FEW ROUGH EDGES THAT NEED TO BE FIXED...ZFP MAY BE 15 TO 20
MIN LATE.

FCSTID=23=RS
HBR   77  52  78  54 / 80  10  10  10
OKC   75  56  75  57 / 100 30  10  10
SPS   79  55  78  55 / 70  10  10  10
GAG   75  50  76  50 / 60  10  10  20
PNC   72  54  75  56 / 100 30  10  20
DUA   76  58  78  60 / 100 50  20  30

.OKC...FF WATCH TDA...ZNS 18>20..24>32..39>43..45>53.
       CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TDA...ZNS 4>47..50..51.(
       WND ADVSRY TNGT...ZNS 4>6..9>11..14..15.
.TX...FF WATCH TDA...ZN 90.
      CAUTION ON AREA LAKES TDA...ZNS 83>90.

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
940 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 1995

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

830 AM     KNOX CITY                 TX      .75 INCH HAIL 6 MILES
5/7/95     KNOX                              EAST OF KNOX CITY.

915 AM     MABELLE                   TX      .75 INCH HAIL AT MABELLE.
5/7/95     BAYLOR

925 AM     SENTINEL                  OK      1.75 INCH HAIL AT SENTINEL
5/7/95     WASHITA                           POLICE DEPARTMENT.

MCCAMMON

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1035 AM CDT SUN MAY 7 1995

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1005 AM    WEATHERFORD               OK      .75 INCH HAIL AT
5/7/95     CUSTER                            WEATHERFORD POLICE
                                             DEPARTMENT.

MCCAMMON

OKZ004>053-TXZ083>090-081130-

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OKLAHOMA CITY OK
1230 PM CDT SUN MAY 7 1995

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
ABOUT THE WESTERN 2/3 OF OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THE AREA IS
WEST OF A LINE FROM ENID TO OKLAHOMA CITY TO RINGLING TO HENRIETTA
TEXAS. THERE IS ALSO A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REST OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.

THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGH RISK
AREA. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...THERE WILL ALSO BE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.  A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTENOON FOR THE CENTRAL 1/3 OF
OKLAHOMA...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OKLAHOMA...AND ADJACENT PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS.

WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE OVER
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.  ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL COME FROM A SLOWLY ADVANCING DRYLINE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM LOCATED MOVING TOWARD THE AREA FROM WESTERN NEW
MEXICO.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORMED OVER WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND WESTERN
OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING CONTINED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. EVEN THOUGH THESE STORMS HAVE WEAKENED SOMEWHAT...THEY MAY
STILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE
OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS AFTENOON. THEY WILL THEN MOVE INTO
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WHERE THE UNSTABLE AIR OVER THE
REGION WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE WIND PROFILE
OVER THE REGION IS ALSO FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS AND
POSSIBLY TORNADOES.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND STORM SPOTTER GROUPS IN THE RISK AREA
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MMT