Tornadoes · United States · Texas · 2021

Unrated tornado, Narcisso, Texas, March 12, 2021

This Unrated tornado ran 0.2 miles across Cottle County on March 12, 2021, touching down at 8:16 PM CST and reaching 50 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unratedthis tornado

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
Unrated
Date
March 12, 2021
Touchdown
8:16 PM CST (02:16 UTC)
Lifted
8:18 PM CST (02:18 UTC)
On the ground
2 minutes
Path length
0.2 miles (0.4 km)
Path width
50 yards (46 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Cottle County
Touchdown point
33.879, -100.397
Lift-off point
33.880, -100.394
Record number
2103122016-01

What the Weather Service recorded

The first of a multi day tornado event occurred on the evening of the 12th. A slow moving upper level low was located over southern California moving into Arizona. Ample moisture surged northward east of a dryline leading to mixed layer instability values on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg underneath very steep mid-level lapse rates. This strong buoyancy led to extremely tall storms which produced large hail up to tennis ball size. Damage to a Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site occurred near Paducah (Cottle County). Very strong shear near an intersection of the dryline and a quasi-stationary front led to two tornadoes during the evening. The first was in Lubbock County just north of Shallowater. The second tornado occurred in rural southwestern Cottle County. No damage was known to be caused by the tornadoes.

A storm chaser observed a brief tornado about 11 miles south-southwest of Paducah.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down. One was issued for the county at another hour that day.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 21:29 UTC and running to 02:38 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
21:29 UTC02:38 UTCTornado WatchLUB
01:42 UTC03:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUB
01:47 UTC02:15 UTCTornado WarningLUB
02:38 UTC08:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WatchLUB
02:58 UTC03:30 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningLUB
03:12 UTC05:22 UTCFlood AdvisoryLUB

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 00:55 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), 00:00Z

2.3 hours before the tornado, 192 km from the path. March 13, 2021.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-03-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 1 joules per kilogram, CIN -45, lifted condensation level 566 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 00:00Z on 2021-03-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 384 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 92 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-45 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
566 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
92 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
384 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
512 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.5
0-3 km lapse rate
4.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Amarillo Airport, TX (KAMA), 12:00Z

9.7 hours after it, 192 km from the path. March 13, 2021.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-03-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 188 joules per kilogram, CIN -140, lifted condensation level 540 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Amarillo Airport, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-03-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 162 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 73 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
188 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-140 J/kg
Surface CAPE
19 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
540 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
73 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
162 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
216 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.9
0-3 km lapse rate
4.7 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Childress Municipal (CDS), 62 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
00:20 UTC120° 14 kt1015.9
00:25 UTC130° 14 kt1015.9
00:30 UTC130° 11 kt1016.6
00:35 UTC130° 10 kt1016.9
00:40 UTC130° 7 kt1017.3
00:45 UTC130° 11 kt1017.3
00:50 UTC120° 8 kt1017.6
00:53 UTC6861120° 7 kt1017.6
00:55 UTC110° 5 kt1017.9
01:00 UTC100° 7 kt1017.9
01:05 UTC100° 4 kt1018.3
01:10 UTC110° 5 kt1018.6
01:15 UTC110° 4 kt1018.6
01:20 UTC0° 0 kt1019
01:25 UTC80° 4 kt1019
01:30 UTC100° 5 kt1018.6
01:35 UTC90° 7 kt1018.3
01:40 UTC80° 7 kt1018.6
01:45 UTC80° 7 kt1018.6
01:50 UTC90° 7 kt1018.6
01:53 UTC666190° 7 kt1018.6TS
01:55 UTC80° 8 kt1018.6
02:00 UTC90° 7 kt1018.6
02:05 UTC90° 7 kt1018.6-RA
02:10 UTC6661100° 10 kt1018.3-RA
02:10 UTC100° 10 kt1018.3-RA
02:15 UTC100° 11 kt1017.9-RA
02:20 UTC100° 14 kt1017.6-RA
02:25 UTC110° 15 kt211017.3-RA
02:30 UTC110° 16 kt1017.6-RA
02:35 UTC 17 kt221017.6-RA
02:40 UTC110° 18 kt1017.6-RA
02:45 UTC120° 14 kt1017.6-RA
02:50 UTC120° 13 kt1017.9-RA BR
02:53 UTC6662130° 14 kt1017.9-RA BR
02:55 UTC120° 13 kt1017.9-RA BR
03:00 UTC110° 11 kt181017.6-RA BR
03:05 UTC120° 14 kt1017.6-RA BR
03:10 UTC 19 kt231017.6-RA
03:15 UTC120° 18 kt231017.6-RA
03:20 UTC120° 18 kt231017.6-RA BR
03:25 UTC120° 18 kt1017.3-RA BR
03:30 UTC110° 16 kt221017.3-RA BR
03:35 UTC120° 16 kt221017.3-RA BR
03:40 UTC120° 18 kt1017.6-RA
03:45 UTC120° 17 kt241017.6-RA
03:50 UTC120° 16 kt1017.3-RA
03:53 UTC6562120° 19 kt251017.3
03:55 UTC110° 18 kt291017.3
04:00 UTC110° 18 kt1017.3
04:05 UTC110° 18 kt1017.3
04:10 UTC120° 17 kt221017.3
04:15 UTC120° 17 kt221017.6

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 134 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 02:17 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
00:57 UTCTSTM WND GST 643 Nnw McadooDickens, TX
01:19 UTCTSTM WND DMG2 W AftonDickens, TXPOWER LINES DOWN AND POWER POLES SNAPPED
02:18 UTCTORNADO15 Sw PaducahCottle, TX
02:47 UTCHAIL 1.754 E DelwinCottle, TX

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2021 tornado in TexasEvery tornado in Texas since 1950Warnings in force in Texas nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of March 12, 2021

1 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
March 125:05 PM CSTUnratedLubbock, TX1.3100

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.