Tornadoes · United States · North Carolina · 2018

EF1 tornado, Willis Lndg, North Carolina, September 15, 2018

This EF1 tornado ran 2.5 miles across Onslow County on September 15, 2018, touching down at 3:00 AM EDT and reaching 275 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
September 15, 2018
Touchdown
3:00 AM EDT (07:00 UTC)
Lifted
3:05 AM EDT (07:05 UTC)
On the ground
5 minutes
Path length
2.5 miles (4.0 km)
Path width
275 yards (251 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Onslow County
Touchdown point
34.624, -77.236
Lift-off point
34.660, -77.251
Record number
1809150100-01

What the Weather Service recorded

Hurricane Florence was a long-lived Cape Verde hurricane and the wettest tropical cyclone on record in the Carolinas. The sixth named storm, third hurricane, and the first major hurricane of the 2018 Atlantic hurricane season, Florence originated from a strong tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 30, 2018. Florence became a tropical depression near Cape Verde on August 31 and progressed west-northwest, becoming a Tropical Storm on September 1. Florence strengthened rapidly on September 4���5, becoming a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. Florence weakened to a tropical storm by September 7, but the system regained hurricane strength on September 9 and major hurricane status with winds of 140 mph on September 10. However, increasing wind shear caused the storm's winds to gradually weaken over the next few days. However, the storm's wind field continued to grow. By the evening of September 13, Florence had been downgraded to a Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane Florence made landfall near Wrightsville Beach early on Saturday September 15, and weakened further as it slowly moved inland.||Florence produced extensive wind damage along the North Carolina coast from Cape Lookout, across Carteret, Onslow, Pender and New Hanover counties. Thousands of downed trees caused widespread power outages to nearly all of eastern North Carolina. The historic legacy of Hurricane Florence will be record breaking storm surge of 9 to 13 feet and widespread devastating rainfall of 20 to 30 inches, locally up to 36 inches, which produced catastrophic and life-threatening flooding. The hardest hit areas included New Bern, Newport, Belhaven, Oriental, North Topsail Beach and Jacksonville, along with Downeast Carteret County, or basically south of a line from Kinston to Cedar Island. A storm total rainfall of 34.00 inches was reported in Swansboro, while the NWS office in Newport recorded 25.20 inches. Wind gusts of 106 mph were reported at Cape Lookout with 105 mph at Fort Macon.

A tornado touched down in Camp Lejeune. Maximum winds were estimated at around 90 mph. The damage path started along Highway 172, south of Lyman Road. Most of the damage was confined to about 10 to 15 snapped pine trees with a few uprooted pine trees. Most of this damage was oriented toward the southwest or west. However, a small building that was open toward the west, had damage inside the building pointed toward the southeast or in the opposite direction of the storm motion. We were not able to examine the total path, but more damage was found to the northwest of the initial point crossing Lyman Road. The time was based on radar data.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

26 minutes of warning. NWS MHX issued a tornado warning for this county at 06:34 UTC, 26 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 07:15 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 03:03 UTC and running to 11:00 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
17:58 UTC18:30 UTCTornado WarningMHX
20:48 UTC03:00 UTCTornado WatchMHX
21:16 UTC21:07 UTCTropical Storm WarningMHX
23:21 UTC06:28 UTCFlood WarningMHX
00:22 UTC17:17 UTCBeach Hazard StatementMHX
01:10 UTC01:45 UTCTornado WarningMHX
02:26 UTC03:00 UTCTornado WarningMHX
02:31 UTC03:15 UTCTornado WarningMHX
02:37 UTC19:00 UTCFlash Flood WarningMHX
03:03 UTC11:00 UTCTornado WatchMHX
03:14 UTC04:00 UTCTornado WarningMHX
03:58 UTC04:45 UTCTornado WarningMHX
05:43 UTC06:30 UTCTornado WarningMHX
06:34 UTC07:15 UTCTornado WarningMHX
07:13 UTC19:00 UTCFlash Flood WarningMHX
11:02 UTC21:00 UTCTornado WatchMHX
14:31 UTC20:30 UTCFlood WarningMHX
15:30 UTC15:57 UTCTornado WarningMHX
18:57 UTC16:39 UTCFlash Flood WarningMHX
20:34 UTC04:00 UTCFlash Flood WarningMHX
21:06 UTC19:01 UTCHigh Surf AdvisoryMHX

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 05:56 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Newport, NC (KMHX), 00:00Z

7.0 hours before the tornado, 37 km from the path. September 15, 2018.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2018-09-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 522 joules per kilogram, CIN 0, lifted condensation level 546 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 00:00Z on 2018-09-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 0 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 0 knots.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
522 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
0 J/kg
Surface CAPE
525 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
546 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
0 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
0 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
5.2 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Newport, NC (KMHX), 12:00Z

5.0 hours after it, 37 km from the path. September 15, 2018.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-09-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 711 joules per kilogram, CIN -4, lifted condensation level 721 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Newport, NC at 12:00Z on 2018-09-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 192 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 24 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
711 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-4 J/kg
Surface CAPE
825 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
721 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
192 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
172 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
2.2
0-3 km lapse rate
5.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Morehead City radar (KMHX), 37 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 06:56 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
04:05 UTCHEAVY RAIN 19.533 Sw NewportCarteret, NCMESONET STATION NPTN7, CROATAN RAWS.
04:10 UTCHEAVY RAIN 19.962 Ne KellumOnslow, NCMESONET STATION HFMN7, HOFFMAN RAWS.
04:19 UTCHEAVY RAIN 6.42 Nnw DixonOnslow, NCMESONET STATION CLJN7, SANDY RUN RAWS.
04:31 UTCFLASH FLOOD1 Sse Piney GreenOnslow, NCROCKY RUN ROAD CLOSED NEAR CREEK DUE TO FLOOD WATERS.
04:51 UTCHEAVY RAIN 9.083 N Haws RunOnslow, NCMESONET STATION E2293, 3 N HAWS RUN.
05:00 UTCHEAVY RAIN 18.29TrentonJones, NCMESONET STATION TRTN7, TRENTON.
05:08 UTCFLASH FLOOD2 Wsw RichlandsOnslow, NCRICHLANDS VFD REPORTED ROADWAY IS COMPLETELY UNDER WATER FROM BANKS BRIDGE ROAD (BRIDGE) TO THE INTERSECTION OF GREGORY FORK ROAD.
05:12 UTCFLASH FLOOD1 S HubertOnslow, NCONSLOW EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTED HIGHWAY 24 BETWEEN HUBERT BLVD. AND HIGHWAY 172 IS FLOODED, VERY DEEP, AND DOT HAS BEEN NOTIFIED.
07:03 UTCTORNADO6 W Hammocks Beach StatOnslow, NCNWS STORM SURVEY CONFIRMED AN EF1 TORNADO NEAR CAMP LEJEUNE. MAXIMUM WINDS EST. AT 90 MPH, WITH A PATH WIDTH OF 275 YARDS AND PATH LENGTH OF 2.5 MILES. TIME BASED ON RADAR.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2018 tornado in North CarolinaEvery tornado in North Carolina since 1950Warnings in force in North Carolina nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of September 15, 2018

9 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
September 153:07 PM EDTEF0Pender, NC0.540$200,000
September 157:16 PM EDTEF1New Hanover, NC0.650$300,000
September 159:29 PM EDTEF0New Hanover, NC0.250
September 1510:41 PM EDTEF1Pender, NC0.450$150,000
September 1512:02 AM EDTEF0New Hanover, NC1.350$150,000
September 1512:09 AM EDTEF0New Hanover, NC0.130
September 1512:42 AM EDTEF1New Hanover, NC2.950$50,000
September 1512:48 AM EDTEF1New Hanover, NC4.550
September 151:51 AM EDTEF0New Hanover, NC0.230$5,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.