Tornadoes · United States · Missouri · 2018

EF0 tornado, Knoxville to Polo, Missouri, October 9, 2018

From Knoxville to Polo, this EF0 tornado ran 4.0 miles across Ray and Caldwell counties on October 9, 2018, touching down at 2:58 PM CDT and reaching 50 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF0
Date
October 9, 2018
Touchdown
2:58 PM CDT (19:58 UTC)
Lifted
3:02 PM CDT (20:02 UTC)
On the ground
4 minutes
Path length
4.0 miles (6.5 km)
Path width
50 yards (46 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Counties
Ray and Caldwell counties
Touchdown point
39.485, -94.018
Lift-off point
39.544, -94.015
Record number
1810091358-01

The damage survey

2 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS EAX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF0. The highest wind the damage implies is 75 mph.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

On consecutive afternoons and evenings of October 8 and 9, several mini or low-topped supercells formed across NW Missouri. These storms did not produce much in the way of severe weather, aside from some weak and brief tornadoes. The damage was relegated to powerlines and tree damage.

A brief tornado formed from a low-topped supercell and traveled over mainly farmland, downing a few trees across secondary roadways. This tornado crossed into Caldwell County when it crossed Price Road.

This is a continuation of a tornado that formed in northern Ray County and crossed Price Road into Caldwell County. The tornado did some minor tree damage along its path.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

4 minutes of warning. NWS EAX issued a tornado warning for this county at 19:54 UTC, 4 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 20:30 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 18:46 UTC and running to 22:50 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
08:27 UTC08:11 UTCFlood WatchEAX
18:46 UTC22:50 UTCTornado WatchEAX
19:54 UTC20:30 UTCTornado WarningEAX
20:35 UTC08:30 UTCFlood WarningEAX
03:00 UTC15:27 UTCFlood WarningEAX

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.10 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 17:25 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Topeka, KS (KFOE), 00:00Z

4.0 hours after it, 151 km from the path. October 10, 2018.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2018-10-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 11 joules per kilogram, CIN -9, lifted condensation level 813 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Topeka, KS at 00:00Z on 2018-10-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 158 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 46 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
11 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-9 J/kg
Surface CAPE
128 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
813 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
46 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
158 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
146 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
5.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Mosby (GPH), 32 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
18:35 UTC73.468140° 7 kt1007.5
18:55 UTC73.468140° 10 kt141007.1-RA
19:15 UTC73.468150° 11 kt151006.4-RA
19:55 UTC71.668130° 6 kt1006.1RA
20:15 UTC69.868160° 3 kt1005.8-RA
20:35 UTC69.868140° 4 kt1005.8
20:55 UTC69.868140° 7 kt1005.8

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 81 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 19:55 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
19:58 UTCTORNADO4 Nnw KnoxvilleRay, MO
20:06 UTCTSTM WND DMG1 Ese PoloCaldwell, MOFROM SOCIAL MEDIA. LARGE TREE DOWN ACROSS SECONDARY ROADWAY.
21:35 UTCFUNNEL CLOUD3 Wnw OsbornDekalb, MODELAYED REPORT.
21:35 UTCFUNNEL CLOUD3 Wsw OsbornClinton, MOCORRECTS PREVIOUS FUNNEL CLOUD REPORT FROM 3 WNW OSBORN TO 3 WSW OSBORN. DELAYED REPORT.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2018 tornado in MissouriEvery tornado in Missouri since 1950Warnings in force in Missouri nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of October 9, 2018

22 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
October 97:58 AM CDTEF1Love, OK1.0100$60,000
October 98:24 AM CDTEF0Oklahoma, OK1.010$10,000
October 98:28 AM CDTEF1Oklahoma, OK10.020$100,000
October 98:30 AM CDTEF0Cleveland, OK3.550$20,000
October 98:31 AM CDTEF1Cleveland, OK2.540$75,000
October 98:33 AM CDTEF0Oklahoma, OK6.370$30,000
October 98:42 AM CDTEF0Oklahoma, OK4.620$5,000
October 99:37 AM CDTEF0Lincoln, OK0.210$60,000
October 93:24 PM CDTEF0Appanoose, IA1.660$10,000
October 93:34 PM CDTEF0Appanoose, IA0.520
October 93:35 PM CDTEF1Johnson, AR0.250$1,000
October 93:37 PM CDTEF1Johnson, AR1.2100
October 93:48 PM CDTEF0Benton, IA0.010
October 94:14 PM CDTEF0Poweshiek, IA1.840
October 94:17 PM CDTEF0Grundy, MO0.025
October 94:20 PM CDTEF0Poweshiek, IA2.330
October 94:35 PM CDTEF0Ringgold, IA3.140
October 95:09 PM CDTEF1Union, IA2.3250$40,000
October 95:21 PM CDTEF0Black Hawk, IA1.950$2,000
October 95:42 PM CDTEF0Adair, IA3.040
October 95:58 PM CDTEF0Adair, IA1.630
October 96:03 PM CDTEF1Adair, IA2.780$5,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.