Tornadoes · United States · Missouri · 2015

EF1 tornado, Kelso to Thebes Jct, Missouri, July 8, 2015

From Kelso to Thebes Jct, this EF1 tornado ran 6.3 miles across Scott and Alexander counties on July 8, 2015, touching down at 8:35 PM CDT and reaching 125 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $66,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
July 8, 2015
Touchdown
8:35 PM CDT (01:35 UTC)
Lifted
8:47 PM CDT (01:47 UTC)
On the ground
12 minutes
Path length
6.3 miles (10.1 km)
Path width
125 yards (114 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$66,000
Crop damage
$10,000
Counties
Scott and Alexander counties
Touchdown point
37.172, -89.525
Lift-off point
37.220, -89.429
Record number
1507081935-01

The damage survey

5 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS PAH, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The highest wind the damage implies is 75 mph.

  • Several of the trees were not healthy.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

Isolated severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a migratory surface low over central Missouri. In the wake of early-day showers departing the Lower Ohio Valley, pockets of sunshine resulted in modest air mass destabilization. Boundary layer dew points in the 70's contributed to storm development. Notable strengthening of the 850 to 700 mb wind field was sufficient for isolated supercells, including a tornadic supercell over Scott County.

Isolated severe thunderstorms developed ahead of a migratory surface low over central Missouri. In the wake of early-day showers departing the Lower Ohio Valley, pockets of sunshine resulted in modest air mass destabilization. Boundary layer dew points in the 70's contributed to storm development. Notable strengthening of the 850 to 700 mb wind field was sufficient for isolated supercells, including a tornadic supercell that crossed the Mississippi River into Alexander County.

Numerous trees were uprooted or snapped off. Several outbuildings were destroyed, including a large shed. Three camper trailers were overturned. One of the campers sustained major damage. There was shingle and siding damage to a few homes. There was clearly a well-defined convergent path through a corn field. Peak winds were estimated near 95 mph. The path continued across the Mississippi River into Alexander County, Illinois.

The tornado crossed the Mississippi River from Scott County, Missouri. The tornado was in its weakening stage as it crossed the river. A path of tree damage was visible on the Illinois side of the river, ending just inside the Shawnee National Forest. No structural damage was reported. Peak winds were estimated to be around 95 mph on the Missouri side of the track.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down. One was issued for the county at another hour that day.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 23:05 UTC and running to 03:32 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
23:05 UTC03:32 UTCTornado WatchPAH
01:19 UTC01:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningPAH
01:42 UTC02:00 UTCTornado WarningPAH
08:05 UTC18:00 UTCFlash Flood WatchPAH

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 00:39 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), 00:00Z

1.6 hours before the tornado, 266 km from the path. July 9, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2015-07-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 608 joules per kilogram, CIN -17, lifted condensation level 1326 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2015-07-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 128 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 20 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
608 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-17 J/kg
Surface CAPE
2895 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1326 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
128 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
241 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
7.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), 12:00Z

10.4 hours after it, 266 km from the path. July 9, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2015-07-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 643 joules per kilogram, CIN -86, lifted condensation level 945 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2015-07-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -78 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 8 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
643 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-86 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1116 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
945 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
8 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
25 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-65 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
5.0 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Paducah radar (KPAH), 64 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 01:33 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
01:35 UTCTORNADO1 Ese KelsoScott, MONUMEROUS TREES UPROOTED OR SNAPPED OFF. SEVERAL OUTBUILDINGS DESTROYED INCLUDING A LARGE SHED WITH THREE SIDES AND ROOF COLLAPSED. THREE CAPMER TRAILERS ROLLED ONTO THEIR SIDE OR TOP...ONE WITH MAJOR DAMAGE. SHINGLE AND/
01:45 UTCTSTM WND DMGScott CityScott, MO2 SHEDS BLOWN DOWN AND A BARN WAS DAMAGED
01:50 UTCTSTM WND DMGThebesAlexander, IL60 MPH WINDS AND DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED. ALSO...A 100 YARD PATH OF TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN
01:56 UTCTSTM WND DMG4 Nw Cape GirardeauCape Girardeau, MOSEVERAL TREES DOWN

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2015 tornado in MissouriEvery tornado in Missouri since 1950Warnings in force in Missouri nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of July 8, 2015

3 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
July 86:43 PM CDTEF0Washington, MO0.2100
July 87:06 PM CDTEF0Jefferson, MO0.150
July 89:05 PM PDTEF0El Dorado, CA2.710

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.