Tornadoes · United States · Minnesota · 2021

EF1 tornado, Warsaw to Little Chicago, Minnesota, May 19, 2021

From Warsaw to Little Chicago, this EF1 tornado ran 1.2 miles across Rice County on May 19, 2021, touching down at 8:17 PM CDT and reaching 25 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
May 19, 2021
Touchdown
8:17 PM CDT (01:17 UTC)
Lifted
8:21 PM CDT (01:21 UTC)
On the ground
4 minutes
Path length
1.2 miles (1.9 km)
Path width
25 yards (23 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Rice County
Touchdown point
44.433, -93.311
Lift-off point
44.450, -93.312
Record number
2105191917-01

The damage survey

9 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS MPX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 90 mph.

  • Apparent start of tornado based on spotter video.
  • A few branches were downed at the apparent end of the tornado. No tree damage was noted farther north.
  • Tornado was over an open field at this point per storm chaser video
  • A number of trees were uprooted, some of which were lofted a couple hundred feet per video.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

There were several low-topped supercells that developed along a warm front across Southern Minnesota Wednesday evening, May 19, 2021. These storms produced 7 short-lived tornadoes and several funnel clouds across southern Minnesota. These tornadoes were weak and most rated EF0. This was a marginal CAPE, marginal wind shear environment with low cloud bases. A strengthening low-level jet led to an increase in low-level wind shear. This was able to produce a few low-topped supercells that were efficient tornado producers.

Trained spotters took video of a tornado that touched down in an open field and moved northward. It struck a farmstead at the end of its path, with only large branches knocked down per a NWS damage survey.

Two storm chasers took video of a narrow tornado. A damage survey revealed that several trees were broken or blown down. Law enforcement and spotters were also watching the tornado.

A storm chaser took video of a tornado moving in an open field and then along a line of trees. Some of the trees were uprooted and lofted a couple hundred feet in the air. A NWS damage survey also noted uprooted trees.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

12 minutes of warning. NWS MPX issued a tornado warning for this county at 01:05 UTC, 12 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 01:45 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
00:39 UTC01:15 UTCTornado WarningMPX
01:05 UTC01:45 UTCTornado WarningMPX

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Marginal Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 01:03 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), 00:00Z

1.3 hours before the tornado, 51 km from the path. May 20, 2021.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2021-05-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 412 joules per kilogram, CIN -10, lifted condensation level 825 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 00:00Z on 2021-05-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 84 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 23 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
412 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1501 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
825 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
23 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
92 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.4
0-3 km lapse rate
6.3 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), 12:00Z

10.7 hours after it, 51 km from the path. May 20, 2021.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2021-05-20Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 53 joules per kilogram, CIN -42, lifted condensation level 683 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Minneapolis, MN at 12:00Z on 2021-05-20The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 91 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 35 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
53 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-42 J/kg
Surface CAPE
190 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
683 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
35 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
5.5 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Faribault Municipal (FBL), 13 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
23:35 UTC71.664.4120° 8 kt1015.6
23:55 UTC71.664.4120° 10 kt161015.6-RA
00:15 UTC69.864.4120° 12 kt171015.6-RA
00:35 UTC69.866.2120° 8 kt1015.6-RA
00:55 UTC6866.290° 6 kt91015.2+RA
01:15 UTC6866.2150° 6 kt1015.6RA
01:35 UTC69.866.2100° 7 kt1015.2-RA
01:55 UTC6866.2130° 9 kt141015.6RA
02:15 UTC6866.2150° 9 kt141015.9RA
02:35 UTC69.866.2140° 11 kt141015.6-RA
02:55 UTC69.866.2150° 10 kt1015.9
03:15 UTC6864.4140° 7 kt1016.3

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Minneapolis radar (KMPX), 50 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 01:18 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
00:25 UTCTORNADO3 W OwatonnaSteele, MNCORRECTS APPROXIMATE TIME OF PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 3 W OWATONNA. ONE OF TWO TORNADOES WEST OF OWATONNA. LOCATION APPROXIMATE. WENT NORTH TOWARD MEDFORD.
00:25 UTCTORNADO4 W OwatonnaSteele, MNCORRECTS APPROXIMATE TIME OF PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT FROM 4 W OWATONNA. SECOND OF TWO TORNADOES WEST OF OWATONNA. LOCATION APPROXIMATE.
00:43 UTCTORNADO3 W OwatonnaSteele, MNONE OF TWO TORNADOES WEST OF OWATONNA. LOCATION APPROXIMATE. WENT NORTH TOWARD MEDFORD.
00:43 UTCTORNADO4 W OwatonnaSteele, MNSECOND OF TWO TORNADOES WEST OF OWATONNA. LOCATION APPROXIMATE.
00:45 UTCTORNADO3 E MorristownRice, MNSEPARATE TORNADO FROM THE OTHER ONE 3 E MORRISTOWN. THE TORNADOES WERE SEPARATED BY ABOUT ONE MILE. BOTH WERE PHOTOGRAPHED AND CAUGHT ON VIDEO BY A LONGTIME SPOTTER.
00:45 UTCTORNADO3 E MorristownRice, MNTREES DOWN. NO STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED. CAUGHT ON PICTURES AND VIDEO. THIS WAS A BRIEF TOUCHDOWN. ANOTHER FUNNEL WAS CLOSE BY BUT COULD NOT SEE WHETHER THAT TOUCHED DOWN.
01:01 UTCTORNADO4 Ene HendersonScott, MNCROSSED HIGHWAY 19 4 ENE HENDERSON ALONG THE SCOTT LE SUEUR COUNTY LINE.
01:21 UTCTORNADO6 Wsw DundasRice, MNRELAYED BY RICE COUNTY SKYWARN. STORM CHASER SAW TREES DOWNED.
01:27 UTCTORNADO3 Sse Elko New MarketRice, MNRELAYED BY RICE COUNTY SKYWARN. APPROXIMATE LOCATION NEAR WEBSTER.
01:42 UTCTORNADO2 E Elko New MarketScott, MNREPORTED AS RAIN WRAPPED. REPORT RELAYED BY SCOTT COUNTY 911.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2021 tornado in MinnesotaEvery tornado in Minnesota since 1950Warnings in force in Minnesota nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of May 19, 2021

8 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
May 194:32 PM CDTUnratedKidder, ND0.350
May 197:37 PM CDTEF0Rice, MN1.525
May 197:39 PM CDTEF0Rice, MN0.315
May 197:42 PM CDTEF0Saint Charles Parish, LA0.575$35,000
May 197:42 PM CDTEF0Rice, MN1.850
May 197:56 PM CDTEF0Le Sueur, MN0.825
May 198:13 PM CDTEF0Rice, MN0.210
May 198:53 PM CDTEF0Dakota, MN0.225

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.