Tornadoes · United States · Michigan · 2016

EF0 tornado, Pinconning, Michigan, July 8, 2016

This EF0 tornado ran 2.0 miles across Bay County on July 8, 2016, touching down at 3:16 PM EDT and reaching 100 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $10,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF0
Date
July 8, 2016
Touchdown
3:16 PM EDT (19:16 UTC)
Lifted
3:20 PM EDT (19:20 UTC)
On the ground
4 minutes
Path length
2.0 miles (3.2 km)
Path width
100 yards (91 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$10,000
County
Bay County
Touchdown point
43.886, -83.956
Lift-off point
43.889, -83.916
Record number
1607081316-01

The damage survey

8 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS DTX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF0. The highest wind the damage implies is 73 mph.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

An unseasonably strong upper-level disturbance interacted with a warm, moist airmass to spark scattered thunderstorms across Southeast Michigan between 3 and 8 pm July 8. These storms became severe across the Saginaw Valley and Thumb regions, with hail up to golf ball size, scattered wind damage, and localized rainfall amounts near 3 inches. An EF0 tornado occurred near Pinconning. The storms weakened upon spreading southward, but re-intensified over the western suburbs of Detroit. A concentrated swath of wind damage occurred from western Wayne County through the Downriver area, with numerous reports of trees down.

Tornado began near the northern end of Elevator Road. The tornado uprooted pines and downed large tree limbs as it paralleled Lapan Road. At the end of Lapan Road, small trees were snapped, a roof was peeled off, and a house sustained broken windows, likely from being struck by roofing material. Estimated peak winds of 70 mph. Based on storm spotter pictures, the tornado likely continued into Saginaw Bay as a waterspout.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

30 minutes of warning. NWS DTX issued a tornado warning for this county at 18:46 UTC, 30 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 19:30 UTC.

The county was under a severe thunderstorm watch, issued at 16:32 UTC and running to 22:41 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
02:30 UTC02:53 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTX
16:32 UTC22:41 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WatchDTX
18:29 UTC19:30 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTX
18:46 UTC19:30 UTCTornado WarningDTX
19:28 UTC19:58 UTCTornado WarningDTX
20:36 UTC21:06 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningDTX

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Enhanced Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 16:42 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Detroit, MI (KDTX), 12:00Z

7.3 hours before the tornado, 136 km from the path. July 8, 2016.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2016-07-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 130 joules per kilogram, CIN -146, lifted condensation level 865 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 12:00Z on 2016-07-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 106 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 32 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
130 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-146 J/kg
Surface CAPE
32 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
865 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
137 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.3
0-3 km lapse rate
3.9 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Detroit, MI (KDTX), 00:00Z

4.7 hours after it, 136 km from the path. July 9, 2016.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2016-07-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 159 joules per kilogram, CIN -77, lifted condensation level 1392 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2016-07-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -7 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 36 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
159 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-77 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1076 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1392 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
62 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.2
0-3 km lapse rate
7.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 129 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 19:16 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
18:42 UTCTSTM WND DMG4 Nnw LoomisClare, MIMULTIPLE TREES REPORTED DOWN IN SHERIDAN TWP EAST OF CLARE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
19:00 UTCHAIL 1.751 Ne BentleyBay, MI
19:07 UTCHAIL 1.5StandishArenac, MI.
19:07 UTCHAIL 1.5StandishArenac, MI
19:15 UTCTSTM WND DMG1 Sse StandishArenac, MISEVERAL TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN FROM WORTH TO NORTHEAST OF STANDISH.
19:27 UTCTSTM WND DMG5 Ese RhodesBay, MI18 INCH DIAMETER WILLOW BRANCH DOWN ON CODY ESTEY ROAD
19:30 UTCTSTM WND DMG4 N SanfordMidland, MITREES DOWN
19:38 UTCHAIL 0.88PinconningBay, MIHEAVY RAIN. BREEZY. HAIL.
19:42 UTCTSTM WND DMG3 Ne PinconningBay, MIROOF PEELED OFF, TREES SNAPPED, AND WINDOWS BLOWN OUT
19:42 UTCTSTM WND GST 642 Ene PinconningBay, MISEVERE WIND AND NICKLE SIZE HAIL
19:42 UTCHAIL 1.75S PinconningBay, MIMARATHON GAS STATION
19:58 UTCHEAVY RAIN 1.1PinconningBay, MIOVER AN INCH OF RAIN IN LESS THAN AN HOUR.
20:29 UTCHAIL 12 Sse Bay CityBay, MIVIA FACEBOOK PHOTO
20:40 UTCHAIL 1Bay CityBay, MI
20:41 UTCTSTM WND DMGSebewaingHuron, MIBIG TREES DOWN AND NUMEROUS WIRES DOWN SEBEWAING TO BAY PORT. VIA DISPATCH.
20:44 UTCTSTM WND DMGPigeonHuron, MILARGE BRANCHES DOWN. WIND GUST ESTIMATED AROUND 50 MPH.
20:44 UTCHAIL 1Bay CityBay, MI
20:44 UTCHAIL 1Bay CityBay, MI

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2016 tornado in MichiganEvery tornado in Michigan since 1950Warnings in force in Michigan nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of July 8, 2016

2 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
July 85:56 PM EDTEF0Luce, MI0.375$5,000
July 88:33 PM EDTEF0Osceola, FL0.330

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.