Tornadoes · United States · Michigan · 2015

EF1 tornado, Rose City to Lupton, Michigan, September 8, 2015

From Rose City to Lupton, this EF1 tornado ran 8.9 miles across Ogemaw County on September 8, 2015, touching down at 3:47 PM EDT and reaching 75 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $40,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
September 8, 2015
Touchdown
3:47 PM EDT (19:47 UTC)
Lifted
3:58 PM EDT (19:58 UTC)
On the ground
11 minutes
Path length
8.9 miles (14.4 km)
Path width
75 yards (69 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$40,000
County
Ogemaw County
Touchdown point
44.380, -84.120
Lift-off point
44.412, -83.945
Record number
1509081347-01

The damage survey

29 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS APX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 107 mph.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A line of thunderstorms moved across lower Michigan, ahead of an approaching cold front. These storms produced a tornado in Ogemaw County.

A tornado tracked nearly nine miles across northern Ogemaw County. Damage was sporadic along the path, peaking at EF-1. A number of trees were downed, in some cases snapped off. Several homes and other structures were damaged by downed trees.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down. One was issued for the county at another hour that day.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
19:20 UTC20:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningAPX
19:48 UTC20:15 UTCTornado WarningAPX

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Marginal Risk. The outlook in force was issued at 16:10 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Alpena, MI (KAPX), 12:00Z

7.8 hours before the tornado, 149 km from the path. September 8, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2015-09-08Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 347 joules per kilogram, CIN -33, lifted condensation level 588 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2015-09-08The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 36 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
347 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-33 J/kg
Surface CAPE
194 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
588 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
36 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
5 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
108 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
4.5 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Alpena, MI (KAPX), 00:00Z

4.2 hours after it, 149 km from the path. September 9, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2015-09-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 7 joules per kilogram, CIN -114, lifted condensation level 462 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 00:00Z on 2015-09-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -7 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 38 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
7 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-114 J/kg
Surface CAPE
20 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
462 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-4 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
4.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 79 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 19:46 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
19:47 UTCTORNADO3 S Rose CityOgemaw, MINWS STORM SURVEY TEAM CONFIRMED AN EF-1 TORNADO WITH MAXIMUM WIND SPEEDS UP TO 110 MPH...A PATH LENGTH OF NEARLY 9 MILES AND A PATH WIDTH OF APROXIMATELY 75 YARDS. EF-1 TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR M-33 3 MILES SOUTH OF ROS
19:58 UTCTORNADO2 Ene Rifle River StateOgemaw, MIBUILDING DAMAGE ON THAYER ROAD REPORTED BY COUNTY DISPATCH. DAMAGE CONSISTENT WITH RADAR SIGNATURE. NWS WILL CONFIRM WITH SURVEY SCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY.
20:15 UTCTSTM WND DMGPinconningBay, MITREE REPORTED DOWNED
22:00 UTCHEAVY RAIN 2.55 S Clear LakeOgemaw, MI
22:00 UTCHEAVY RAIN 3.76Saint HelenRoscommon, MI

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2015 tornado in MichiganEvery tornado in Michigan since 1950Warnings in force in Michigan nowThe forecast where you are

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.