Tornadoes · United States · Michigan · 2002

F1 tornado, Tustin, Michigan, August 1, 2002

This F1 tornado ran 6.5 miles across Osceola County on August 1, 2002, touching down at 8:15 PM EDT and reaching 850 yards wide. It killed nobody and injured 1, and did $500,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. F040 to 72 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. F173 to 112 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. F2113 to 157 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. F3158 to 206 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. F4207 to 260 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. F5261 to 318 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
F1
Date
August 1, 2002
Touchdown
8:15 PM EDT (00:15 UTC)
Path length
6.5 miles (10.5 km)
Path width
850 yards (777 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
1
Property damage
$500,000
County
Osceola County
Touchdown point
44.100, -85.450
Lift-off point
44.100, -85.450
Record number
280

What the Weather Service recorded

A F1 tornado struck Tustin (Osceola county) during the late evening hours of the first of August. The maximum winds were estimated to have peaked at the 100 to 110 m.p.h. range... ranking the tornado as a F1 on the Fujita scale. The tornado traveled from west to east and left a damage path that was 6.5 miles long and about a half mile wide. The storm traveled along 21 mile road passing about one mile north of the center of Tustin. The path of damage began about half a mile west of the intersection of 230th Avenue and 21 Mile Road. From there the tornado intensified and moved east. The worst damage occurred along 21 Mile Road between 220th and 200th Avenues. Numerous trees were snapped off or uprooted and several outbuildings and homes incurred roof damage from the high winds and falling trees. A garage attached to a house was destroyed and a camper was flipped over near the intersection of 21 Mile Road and 200th Avenue. The tornado continued east crossing U.S. 131 and ending between Makinaw trail and 170th Avenue, about two miles northeast of the center of Tustin. Numerous reports of downed trees and power lines were received from across most of southwestern and west central lower Michigan with severe thunderstorms through the late evening hours. One isolated report of three quarters inch hail was received from spotters in New Era (Oceana county).

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down. One was issued for the county at another hour that day.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
01:02 UTC01:30 UTCTornado WarningGRR

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 20:41 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), 00:00Z

0.3 hours before the tornado, 215 km from the path. August 2, 2002.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2002-08-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 122 joules per kilogram, CIN -368, lifted condensation level 1542 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 00:00Z on 2002-08-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -43 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 50 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
122 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-368 J/kg
Surface CAPE
2010 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1542 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
69 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-1.9
0-3 km lapse rate
5.7 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), 12:00Z

11.7 hours after it, 215 km from the path. August 2, 2002.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2002-08-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -83726, lifted condensation level 1326 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Green Bay/Straub, WI at 12:00Z on 2002-08-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -37 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 37 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-83726 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1326 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
37 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
6 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-37 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
33 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
2.0 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Cadillac/Wexford (CAD), 20 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
22:15 UTC82.471.6220° 10 kt161009.8
22:35 UTC82.471.6210° 15 kt201009.5
22:55 UTC82.469.8220° 20 kt271010.5
23:35 UTC80.671.6220° 8 kt141010.5-RA
23:55 UTC7773.4260° 6 kt1010.5+RA
00:16 UTC75.275.2220° 14 kt191011.2+RA
00:35 UTC73.471.6230° 7 kt1010.8-RA
00:55 UTC73.471.6210° 13 kt1011.2-RA
01:16 UTC71.669.8230° 5 kt1011.5
01:36 UTC71.671.6230° 6 kt1011.5
01:55 UTC73.471.60° 0 kt1011.9

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2002 tornado in MichiganEvery tornado in Michigan since 1950Warnings in force in Michigan nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of August 1, 2002

6 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
August 11:58 PM EDTF1Charlevoix, MI1.0110
August 16:55 PM EDTF0Cheboygan, MI1.020
August 17:02 PM EDTF0Presque Isle, MI1.020
August 16:45 PM CDTF0Culberson, TX0.125
August 15:15 PM PDTF0Washoe, NV0.1100
August 110:05 PM EDTF0Newaygo, MI15.015$2,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.