Tornadoes · United States · Florida · 2025

EF1 tornado, Mt Carrie to Olustee, Florida, March 16, 2025

From Mt Carrie to Olustee, this EF1 tornado ran 2.7 miles across Columbia and Baker counties on March 16, 2025, touching down at 11:38 AM EDT and reaching 120 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mphthis tornado

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF1
Date
March 16, 2025
Touchdown
11:38 AM EDT (15:38 UTC)
Lifted
11:44 AM EDT (15:44 UTC)
On the ground
6 minutes
Path length
2.7 miles (4.4 km)
Path width
120 yards (110 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Counties
Columbia and Baker counties
Touchdown point
30.266, -82.488
Lift-off point
30.281, -82.452
Record number
2503160938-01

The damage survey

4 damage points were recorded along this path by NWS JAX, in the Damage Assessment Toolkit the survey teams carry. The strongest indicator was rated EF1. The highest wind the damage implies is 90 mph.

  • Damage path approximately 300-400ft wide. Majority pine tree damage.
  • Damage path approximately 250ft-300ft wide. Pine trees.
  • Damage path width of about 250ft-300ft. Pine Tree damage, mainly snapped trunks.
  • Several pine tree trunks snapped. Damage path narrowed to about 100ft.

Survey points are preliminary and are the raw material the published rating was built from. Source: NWS Damage Assessment Toolkit.

What the Weather Service recorded

A strong pre-frontal squall line moved across the region during the day. A slight risk of severe storms was in place for the local area with bulk shear of 45-60 kts phased with diurnal instability and 0-3 km SRH near 300 s2/m2 posing a tornado threat, especially for locations north of the Interstate 10 corridor. A couple of tornadoes impacted the local area with other reports of wind damage.

At approximately 11:38 AM EDT, a tornado with estimated peak winds|of 90 mph touched down over the Osceola National Forest near NE|Olino Rd, just north of Interstate 10 in Olustee, FL. The tornado|broke off many small branches, snapped tree trunks of many small |pines trees, and ripped the bark off of a medium sized pine tree |at NE Olino Rd near NE Gum Swamp Rd before quickly progressing |northeastward into a heavily forested area. The tornado then |proceeded to snap the trunks of many small pine trees on County |Road 250A as well as a service road just off of CR 250A before |continuing into more dense forest to its northeast. The width of |the tornado's track became much more narrow as it crossed into |far western Baker County and ended near Forest Road 211, where |several more small tree trunks were snapped.

At approximately 11:38 AM EDT, a tornado with estimated peak winds|of 90 mph touched down over the Osceola National Forest near NE|Olino Rd, just north of Interstate 10 in Olustee, FL. The tornado|broke off many small branches, snapped tree trunks of many small |pines trees, and ripped the bark off of a medium sized pine tree |at NE Olino Rd near NE Gum Swamp Rd before quickly progressing |northeastward into a heavily forested area. The tornado then |proceeded to snap the trunks of many small pine trees on County |Road 250A as well as a service road just off of CR 250A before |continuing into more dense forest to its northeast. The width of |the tornado's track became much more narrow as it crossed into |far western Baker County and ended near Forest Road 211, where |several more small tree trunks were snapped.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

1 minute of warning. NWS JAX issued a tornado warning for this county at 15:37 UTC, 1 minute before the tornado touched down, in force until 16:00 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 12:05 UTC and running to 18:50 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
12:05 UTC18:50 UTCTornado WatchJAX
14:38 UTC15:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAX
15:13 UTC15:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAX
15:37 UTC16:00 UTCTornado WarningJAX
15:46 UTC16:04 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningJAX

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 12:40 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), 12:00Z

3.6 hours before the tornado, 78 km from the path. March 16, 2025.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2025-03-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 49 joules per kilogram, CIN -257, lifted condensation level 878 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 12:00Z on 2025-03-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 454 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 53 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
49 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-257 J/kg
Surface CAPE
196 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
878 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
454 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
479 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1
0-3 km lapse rate
3.5 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Jacksonville, FL (KJAX), 00:00Z

8.4 hours after it, 78 km from the path. March 17, 2025.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jacksonville, FL at 00:00Z on 2025-03-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 687 joules per kilogram, CIN -15, lifted condensation level 571 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Jacksonville, FL at 00:00Z on 2025-03-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 408 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 70 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
687 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-15 J/kg
Surface CAPE
809 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
571 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
70 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
408 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
388 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.8
Supercell composite
6.7
0-3 km lapse rate
4.9 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

Lake City (LCQ), 14 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
13:55 UTC71.668180° 10 kt141010.8
14:15 UTC71.668180° 13 kt221011.2-RA
14:35 UTC71.668190° 12 kt191011.9-RA
14:55 UTC69.868190° 8 kt1011.9-VCTSRA
15:15 UTC71.668170° 7 kt1012.5TSRA
15:35 UTC6864.4240° 11 kt301013.2TSRA
15:55 UTC66.264.40° 0 kt1012.2-VCTSDZ
16:15 UTC6864.470° 3 kt1011.9-RA
16:35 UTC66.266.280° 3 kt1011.5-RA
16:55 UTC6866.20° 0 kt1011.9-RA
17:15 UTC69.868190° 4 kt1012.2
17:35 UTC69.868180° 6 kt1011.5

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Jacksonville radar (KJAX), 77 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 15:39 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
15:40 UTCTORNADO6 Nnw OlusteeColumbia, FLCorrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 6 NNW Olustee to tornado damage based on NWS storm survey. Large tree branches snapped in Osceola forest, picture on social media. Time estimated by radar.
15:43 UTCTSTM WND DMG6 Nnw OlusteeColumbia, FLLarge tree branches snapped in Osceola forest, picture on social media. Time estimated by radar.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2025 tornado in FloridaEvery tornado in Florida since 1950Warnings in force in Florida nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of March 16, 2025

14 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
March 166:28 AM EDTEF1Mitchell, GA5.31,200$300,000
March 167:00 AM EDTEF0Burke, GA4.375
March 167:01 AM EDTEF0Burke, GA3.1100
March 168:27 AM EDTEF0Barnwell, SC0.350
March 168:38 AM EDTEF1Lexington, SC5.8125
March 1610:52 AM EDTEF0Charlton, GA6.810
March 1612:44 PM EDTEF1Fayette, PA1.675
March 161:05 PM EDTEF1Fayette, PA7.775
March 161:19 PM EDTEF1Westmoreland, PA1.250
March 161:25 PM EDTEF0Westmoreland, PA1.750
March 161:30 PM EDTEF1Indiana, PA1.150
March 162:22 PM EDTEF1Elk, PA0.5200$350,000
March 162:48 PM EDTEF1Clinton, PA0.7500$300,000
March 167:25 PM EDTEF1Pender, NC3.1200$30,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.