Tornadoes · United States · Florida · 2020

Unrated tornado, Highland Pt, Florida, January 31, 2020

This Unrated tornado ran 4.7 miles across Monroe County on January 31, 2020, touching down at 10:35 PM EST and reaching 50 yards wide. It killed nobody.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unratedthis tornado

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
Unrated
Date
January 31, 2020
Touchdown
10:35 PM EST (03:35 UTC)
Lifted
10:43 PM EST (03:43 UTC)
On the ground
8 minutes
Path length
4.7 miles (7.5 km)
Path width
50 yards (46 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
County
Monroe County
Touchdown point
25.464, -81.123
Lift-off point
25.516, -81.075
Record number
2001312135-01

What the Weather Service recorded

A strong low pressure system over the Gulf of Mexico helped to pump moist and unstable air across South Florida during the evening and nighttime hours of January 31st, and early morning of February 1st. Strong thunderstorms developed ahead of a cold front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and moved east across the southern Florida peninsula. These storms spawned a tornado in the Everglades of Southwest Florida, as well as gusty winds and heavy rainfall across Southeast Florida.

The forward-propagating component of a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) advanced onshore along the Southwest Florida coast during the late-evening hours of Friday, January 31. Embedded mesovortices intermittently strengthened while |this activity moved onshore from the Gulf waters. ||One of the stronger and tighter circulations over Mainland Monroe County of South|Florida was accompanied by a well-defined Tornadic Debris Signature (TDS). This signature was characterized by a relative minimum in correlation coefficient per KAMX radar data, and corresponded with an embedded inflection in the zone of enhanced |reflectivity accompanying the QLCS that also aligned with a well-defined mesovortex. This TDS occurred over the Everglades, and was used as the foundation for this tornado report. ||The lack of conclusively surveyed damage indicators precludes the delineation |of an exact damage rating. As a result, an unknown rating has been assigned to this tornado. However, the application of established research results on the aforementioned radar data -- which provides statistical estimates of tornado probabilities and wind |speeds based on WSR-88D data and environmental information -- suggests that this tornado could have been a high-end EF0, with peak wind speeds around 80 mph.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down. One was issued for the county at another hour that day.

The county was under a severe thunderstorm watch, issued at 01:01 UTC and running to 05:08 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
01:01 UTC05:08 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WatchMFL
01:04 UTC05:12 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WatchKEY
02:57 UTC04:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningMFL
03:39 UTC04:12 UTCTornado WarningMFL

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a Slight Risk, with a 0.05 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 00:35 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Miami, FL (KMFL), 00:00Z

3.6 hours before the tornado, 89 km from the path. February 1, 2020.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Miami, FL at 00:00Z on 2020-02-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 76 joules per kilogram, CIN -92, lifted condensation level 991 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Miami, FL at 00:00Z on 2020-02-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 63 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 53 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
76 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-92 J/kg
Surface CAPE
296 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
991 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
10 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
113 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1
0-3 km lapse rate
5.8 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Miami, FL (KMFL), 12:00Z

8.4 hours after it, 89 km from the path. February 1, 2020.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Miami, FL at 12:00Z on 2020-02-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 1 joules per kilogram, CIN -298, lifted condensation level 1427 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Miami, FL at 12:00Z on 2020-02-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 157 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 53 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-298 J/kg
Surface CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1427 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
53 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
22 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
157 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
206 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
3.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Miami radar (KAMX), 70 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 03:36 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
03:35 UTCTORNADO13 S Wilderness WaterwaMainland Monroe, FLEF-UNKNOWN RATING BASED ON TORNADIC DEBRIS SIGNATURE (TDS) AND IN THE ABSENCE OF CONCLUSIVELY SURVEYED DAMAGE INDICATORS. BASED ON STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ESTIMATING WIND SPEEDS, BASE-VARIABLE DATA COLLECTED FROM KAMX CO

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2020 tornado in FloridaEvery tornado in Florida since 1950Warnings in force in Florida nowThe forecast where you are

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.