Tornadoes · United States · Florida · 2015

EF0 tornado, Terra Ceia, Florida, October 1, 2015

This EF0 tornado ran 0.4 miles across Manatee County on October 1, 2015, touching down at 9:49 AM EDT and reaching 30 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $12,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mphthis tornado

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF0
Date
October 1, 2015
Touchdown
9:49 AM EDT (13:49 UTC)
Lifted
9:51 AM EDT (13:51 UTC)
On the ground
2 minutes
Path length
0.4 miles (0.6 km)
Path width
30 yards (27 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$12,000
County
Manatee County
Touchdown point
27.590, -82.628
Lift-off point
27.588, -82.622
Record number
1510010749-01

What the Weather Service recorded

A line of scattered showers associated with a weak cold front passage produced a breif lived waterspout over the Tampa Bay that came onshore near the southern end of the Skyway Bridge as a weak tornado. The tornado crossed Interstate 275, damaging a parked trailer.

Multiple reports were received of a waterspout that formed over the Tampa Bay and came onshore as a brief tornado near the southern end of the Skyway Bridge. The tornado crossed Interstate 275 and caused damage to a trailer. Track location was estimated based off of amateur video.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

No tornado warning for this county appears in the archive as in force at the moment the tornado touched down.

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a General Thunderstorms Risk. The outlook in force was issued at 12:49 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), 12:00Z

1.8 hours before the tornado, 25 km from the path. October 1, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2015-10-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 517 joules per kilogram, CIN -40, lifted condensation level 734 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2015-10-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -63 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 27 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
517 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-40 J/kg
Surface CAPE
912 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
734 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-63 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
0 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.1
Supercell composite
-1.1
0-3 km lapse rate
4.2 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), 00:00Z

10.2 hours after it, 25 km from the path. October 2, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2015-10-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 393 joules per kilogram, CIN -38, lifted condensation level 1157 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2015-10-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 7 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 29 knots.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
393 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-38 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1573 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1157 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
29 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
4 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-0.0
Supercell composite
-0.0
0-3 km lapse rate
6.1 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The surface observations

St Petersburg (SPG), 20 km from the path, in the two hours either side.

Time (UTC)Temp (°F)Dew point (°F)WindGust (kt)Pressure (mb)Weather
11:53 UTC8173360° 3 kt1005.8
12:53 UTC817410° 4 kt1005.8
13:53 UTC8473350° 5 kt1006.1
14:53 UTC8672360° 8 kt1005.8

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of airport observations.

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 25 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 13:48 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2015 tornado in FloridaEvery tornado in Florida since 1950Warnings in force in Florida nowThe forecast where you are

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.