Tornadoes · United States · Florida · 2007

EF3 tornado, Royal to Wildwood, Florida, February 2, 2007

From Royal to Wildwood, this EF3 tornado ran 5.7 miles across Sumter County on February 2, 2007, touching down at 3:10 AM EST and reaching 335 yards wide. It killed nobody and injured 15, and did $62 million of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mph

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mphthis tornado

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF3
Date
February 2, 2007
Touchdown
3:10 AM EST (08:10 UTC)
Lifted
3:16 AM EST (08:16 UTC)
On the ground
6 minutes
Path length
5.7 miles (9.1 km)
Path width
335 yards (306 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
15
Property damage
$62 million
County
Sumter County
Touchdown point
28.881, -82.046
Lift-off point
28.898, -81.954
Record number
0702020210-01

What the Weather Service recorded

A developing area of low pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, February 1 intensified and moved off the mid Atlantic coast Friday. Numerous thunderstorms developed out ahead of and along the associated cold front that pushed into southern Florida late Friday. The first tornado of the year to use the Enhanced Fujita Scale occurred just after 3 AM Friday in The Villages in northeast Sumter County. Several violent tornadoes were reported across central Florida early Friday morning. This violent tornado outbreak was the largest in Florida since the Kissimmee tornadoes of February 22-23, 1998. |In addition to the tornadoes, gusty southwest winds ahead of the cold front combined with high tide to cause areas of minor coastal flooding along west and southwest facing shorelines north of Tampa Bay.

The tornado first touched down near the southeast corner of The Villages south of Lake Miona and moved rapidly to the east northeast at 55 MPH into Lake County. A FEMA report to Sumter County emergency management officials detailed damage to 1,145 homes with 200 destroyed during the 6 minutes the tornado was on the ground. A National Weather Service storm survey estimated maximum winds of 140 MPH. No fatalities were recorded in Sumter County and 15 injuries is a rough estimate.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

8 minutes of warning. NWS TBW issued a tornado warning for this county at 08:02 UTC, 8 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 08:20 UTC.

The county was under a tornado watch, issued at 05:56 UTC and running to 10:58 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
05:56 UTC10:58 UTCTornado WatchTBW
08:02 UTC08:20 UTCTornado WarningTBW

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a General Thunderstorms Risk, with a 0.02 chance of a tornado within 25 miles. The outlook in force was issued at 06:01 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), 00:00Z

8.2 hours before the tornado, 137 km from the path. February 2, 2007.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2007-02-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 156 joules per kilogram, CIN -98, lifted condensation level 835 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 00:00Z on 2007-02-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 424 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 74 knots.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
156 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-98 J/kg
Surface CAPE
433 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
835 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
74 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
424 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
498 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
2.3
0-3 km lapse rate
5.7 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

Tampa Bay, FL (KTBW), 12:00Z

3.8 hours after it, 137 km from the path. February 2, 2007.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2007-02-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 997 joules per kilogram, CIN -10, lifted condensation level 598 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Tampa Bay, FL at 12:00Z on 2007-02-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 345 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 40 knots.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
997 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-10 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1375 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
598 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
345 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
378 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.7
Supercell composite
10.5
0-3 km lapse rate
4.6 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 137 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 08:10 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
06:11 UTCHEAVY RAIN 6LowellMarion, FLSPOTTER MEASURED 6.0 INCHES OF RAIN FROM 2/1 THORUGH 1 AM 2/2/07 NEAR BAKERSFIELD IN NW MARION COUNTY.
08:10 UTCTORNADO6 Ne WildwoodSumter, FLLIKELY TORNADO. SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN NORTHERN SUMTER COUNTY. AREA GENERALLY BETWEEN OXFORD AND THE VILLAGES CONTINUING INTO LAKE COUNTY. AN NWS SURVEY TEAM WILL BE ENROUTE BY MID MORNING.
08:15 UTCTORNADOLady LakeLake, FLPRELIMINARY REPORT. DOWNED TREES, POWER LINES AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES IN LADY LAKE AREA VICINITY HWY 27 AND OAK HILL ROAD
08:20 UTCTORNADOLady LakeLake, FLHIGH END ENHANCED F-3 TORNADO...EF-3...REPORTED BY NWS MELBOURNE SURVEY CREW. ESTIMATED WINDS OF 155 TO 160 MPH.
08:20 UTCTORNADOThe VillagesLake, FLPOSSIBLE TORNADO. LAKE COUNTY E. M. REPORTS EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO HOMES AND MOBILE HOMES IN THE VILLAGES AND LADY LAKE AREAS WITH AT LEAST ONE POSSIBLE FATALITY. ADDITIONAL DAMAGE REPORTED IN LAKE MACK NEAR HWY 42 AND 44.
08:30 UTCTSTM WND DMG2 Sw WeirsdaleMarion, FLPOSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE. FENCING SHATTERED IN NEIGHBORHOOD.
08:45 UTCTORNADOPaisleyLake, FL*** 11 FATAL ***
08:48 UTCTORNADO1 Ssw Forest HillsLake, FL*** 11 FATAL *** LAKE MACK. SURVEY CREW FOUND HIGH END EF3 TORNADO DAMAGE AT THIS SITE WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 160 TO 165 MPH.
08:50 UTCTORNADO9 E PaisleyLake, FL*** 3 FATAL *** AT FOREST DRIVE AND STATE ROAD 44 IN LAKE COUNTY. SURVEY REPORTS HIGH END EF3 DAMAGE WITH WINDS 150 TO 154 MPH.
09:00 UTCHEAVY RAIN 7.68Salt SpringsMarion, FL24 HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL.
11:00 UTCHEAVY RAIN 7OcalaMarion, FLHAM OPERATOR RECEIVED REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN OVERNITE IN THE OCALA AREA.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2007 tornado in FloridaEvery tornado in Florida since 1950Warnings in force in Florida nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of February 2, 2007

4 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
February 23:17 AM ESTEF3Lake, FL10.5450810$52 million
February 23:37 AM ESTEF3Lake, FL26.04501351$98 million
February 24:22 AM ESTEF1Volusia, FL3.1100$6.0 million
February 28:00 AM ESTEF0Polk, FL0.550$2,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.