Tornadoes · United States · Arkansas · 2015

EF2 tornado, Aubrey to Smiths Corner, Arkansas, December 28, 2015

From Aubrey to Smiths Corner, this EF2 tornado ran 5.8 miles across Lee County on December 28, 2015, touching down at 4:46 AM CST and reaching 40 yards wide. It killed nobody, and did $50,000 of property damage.

The rating scale

Tracks are drawn in the color of the rating. The Enhanced Fujita scale rates the damage rather than measuring the wind: the speeds are what that damage is taken to imply.

  1. EF065 to 85 mph

    Light damage. Surface peeled off some roofs, gutters and siding damaged, branches broken, shallow-rooted trees pushed over.

  2. EF186 to 110 mph

    Moderate damage. Roofs badly stripped, mobile homes overturned or badly damaged, exterior doors lost, windows broken.

  3. EF2111 to 135 mphthis tornado

    Considerable damage. Roofs torn off well-built houses, frame homes shifted on their foundations, mobile homes destroyed, large trees snapped or uprooted, cars lifted off the ground.

  4. EF3136 to 165 mph

    Severe damage. Whole stories of well-built houses destroyed, large buildings badly damaged, trains overturned, trees debarked, heavy cars lifted and thrown.

  5. EF4166 to 200 mph

    Devastating damage. Well-built houses leveled, structures with weak foundations moved some distance, cars thrown and large missiles generated.

  6. EF5over 200 mph

    Incredible damage. Strong frame houses swept off their foundations, car-sized missiles thrown more than 100 meters, steel-reinforced concrete badly damaged, high-rise buildings deformed.

  7. Unrated

    The survey recorded a tornado but could not put a number on it, most often because it crossed open country and damaged nothing a rating can be read from.

The record

Rating
EF2
Date
December 28, 2015
Touchdown
4:46 AM CST (10:46 UTC)
Lifted
4:51 AM CST (10:51 UTC)
On the ground
5 minutes
Path length
5.8 miles (9.3 km)
Path width
40 yards (37 m)
Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$50,000
County
Lee County
Touchdown point
34.702, -90.916
Lift-off point
34.784, -90.901
Record number
1512280446-01

What the Weather Service recorded

A closed upper low moved from East Central Texas into Southern Missouri during the morning hours of December 28, 2016. A strongly forced line of convection tracked southwest to northeast across the Mid-South. An EF-2 tornado occurred in East Arkansas.

A tornado touched down southwest of Marianna. A mobile home was destroyed. There was roof damage to homes.

From NOAA NCEI's Storm Events Database, the narrative the local forecast office wrote for Storm Data.

The warnings

7 minutes of warning. NWS MEG issued a tornado warning for this county at 10:39 UTC, 7 minutes before the tornado touched down, in force until 11:15 UTC.

Issued (UTC)ExpiredProductOffice
06:00 UTC00:00 UTCWind AdvisoryMEG
10:35 UTC11:15 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEG
10:39 UTC11:15 UTCTornado WarningMEG
10:53 UTC12:38 UTCTornado WatchMEG
10:59 UTC11:45 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEG
11:14 UTC12:00 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEG
11:41 UTC12:16 UTCSevere Thunderstorm WarningMEG

Every warning and watch covering the touchdown point that day, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service products. Lead time is measured from the issue of the warning in force to the touchdown time in the database, both of which were recorded to the minute by different people.

The forecast that day

The Storm Prediction Center had this point in a General Thunderstorms Risk. The outlook in force was issued at 05:43 UTC.

SPC's Day 1 convective outlook as it stood when the tornado began, read at the touchdown point. The same archive is on the radar archive.

The air that afternoon

The radiosonde launches on either side of the tornado, from the nearest station that was launching then, drawn and analyzed the way Storm Lab does: the same diagram, the same parcel and shear definitions SPC's mesoanalysis uses.

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), 12:00Z

1.2 hours after it, 88 km from the path. December 28, 2015.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2015-12-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel lifted from the surface. Mixed-layer CAPE 0 joules per kilogram, CIN -100167, lifted condensation level 470 meters above ground. Wind barbs in knots down the right edge.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed. The warm shading is its CAPE, the cool shading the inhibition it has to break through.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 12:00Z on 2015-12-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers as a curve, rings every 10 meters per second labeled in knots. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 234 square meters per square second, 0 to 6 km bulk shear 79 knots.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km. RM and LM are the right and left moving storms Bunkers' method gives; the shaded area is the 0 to 1 km storm-relative helicity.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-100167 J/kg
Surface CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
470 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
79 kt
0-1 km bulk shear
38 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
234 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
218 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.4
0-3 km lapse rate
1.5 K/km

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The radar

The Memphis radar (KNQA), 116 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the touchdown began at 10:46 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment, over the track

Reflectivity and velocity, decoded from the Level II archive in the browser. Volumes take a few seconds to open the first time.

What was reported nearby

Local storm reports within 60 km of the path, in the three hours either side.

Time (UTC)ReportWhereCountyRemark
10:46 UTCTORNADO10 Sw MariannaLee, ARNWS STORM SURVEY REVEALED THAT A TORNADO CAUSED EF-2 DAMAMGE 10 MILES SW OF MARIANA. THE TORNADO DESTROYED MOBILE HOMES AND CAUSED ROOF DAMAGE TO OTHER HOMES.

From the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service local storm reports.

This ground now

The live radar over the trackEvery 2015 tornado in ArkansasEvery tornado in Arkansas since 1950Warnings in force in Arkansas nowThe forecast where you are

The other tornadoes of December 28, 2015

5 more were confirmed in the United States that day.

DateTimeRatingWherePath (mi)Width (yd)DeathsInjuriesDamage
December 282:53 AM CSTEF1Livingston Parish, LA1.9100
December 283:20 AM CSTEF1Saint John the Baptist Parish, LA0.6150
December 285:43 AM CSTEF1Covington, MS5.6100$100,000
December 288:30 AM CSTEF1Santa Rosa, FL0.875$10,000
December 284:58 PM ESTEF0Union, NC0.975$50,000

What this means

Ratings are the survey's, read off the damage rather than measured; the rating scale is above. Tornado counts rise through the record as reporting improved, so a year in the 1950s is not comparable with one today except for the strongest tornadoes, which were always noticed.

Sources

NOAA Storm Prediction Center tornado database, 1950-2025, the official record kept by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center.