Rivers in Washington
Tolt River near Carnation
Below flood stage
0.10ftStage
Observed Mon, Sep 21, 8:15 AM PDT
- Forecast crest
- 0.17 ftFri, Sep 25, 11:00 AM PDT
- Record crest
- 13.04 ft1959
Flood stages and impacts
- 10500.0 ftthe Tolt River will cause severe flooding. Dangerously deep and quick flood waters will cover roads and driveways...with some homes flooded. The river will likely overtop some levees. Erosion could cause serious damage and channel changes may occur. Flooding will occur all along the river including headwaters...tributaries...and other streams within and near the Tolt River Basin. This river level on the Tolt corresponds to a phase 4 flood in the King County flood system.
- 8500.0 ftthe Tolt River will cause major flooding. Deep and quick flood waters will cover roads and driveways...cutting off access to many homes. Levees may overtop and channel changes may occur. Flooding will occur all along the river including headwaters...tributaries...and other streams within and near the Tolt River Basin. This river level on the Tolt corresponds to a phase 4 flood in the King County flood system.
- 5000.0 ftthe Tolt River will flood Tolt River Rd NE and many driveways. Some homes in the San Souci area could be inaccessible due to deep and quick flood waters. This river level on the Tolt corresponds to a phase 3 flood in the King County flood system.
- 3500.0 ftthe Tolt River will spill over its banks with water over 353rd Ave NE and some driveways in the San Souci area. This river level on the Tolt corresponds to a phase 2 flood in the King County flood system.
Flood outlook
Chance of flooding, September to November
| Category | Chance |
|---|---|
| Minor flooding | 35% |
| Moderate flooding | 18% |
| Major flooding | 12% |
The three-month chances are the River Forecast Centers’ long-range flood outlook, issued September 20, 2026.
Crest history
231 crests on NOAA’s list since 1937.
| # | Date | Stage |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 15, 1959 | 13.04 ft |
| 2 | February 9, 1951 | 12.92 ft |
| 3 | January 8, 2009 | 12.59 ft |
| 4 | December 11, 1955 | 12.52 ft |
| 5 | January 7, 1945 | 12.14 ft |
| 6 | October 31, 1942 | 11.95 ft |
| 7 | November 24, 1990 | 11.62 ft |
| 8 | March 4, 1950 | 11.54 ft |
| 9 | April 18, 1938 | 11.51 ft |
| 10 | January 5, 1969 | 11.34 ft |
| 11 | February 1, 2020 | 11.30 ft |
| 12 | November 19, 1962 | 11.30 ft |
| 13 | November 12, 2008 | 11.29 ft |
| 14 | December 15, 1999 | 11.28 ft |
| 15 | December 2, 1943 | 11.24 ft |
| 16 | November 29, 1995 | 11.19 ft |
| 17 | January 23, 1953 | 11.19 ft |
| 18 | January 5, 2015 | 11.16 ft |
| 19 | December 9, 1953 | 11.15 ft |
| 20 | October 20, 2003 | 11.11 ft |
| 21 | November 6, 2006 | 10.95 ft |
| 22 | October 25, 1946 | 10.94 ft |
| 23 | February 8, 1955 | 10.93 ft |
| 24 | November 20, 1959 | 10.92 ft |
| 25 | February 8, 1996 | 10.89 ft |
Most recent crests
- December 10, 2025: 10.16 ft
- November 4, 2022: 9.41 ft
- January 12, 2022: 9.89 ft
- February 22, 2021: 9.19 ft
- January 12, 2021: 8.87 ft
- February 6, 2020: 9.71 ft
- February 1, 2020: 11.30 ft
- January 31, 2020: 9.97 ft
- January 7, 2020: 9.38 ft
- December 20, 2019: 9.62 ft
Nearby
Upstream, downstream and the gauges around this one.
What this means
Forecasts by the Northwest River Forecast Center. Forecasts are issued routinely year-round. River forecasts for this location take into account past and future precipitation. The stages/flows that will occur may be different if future rainfall is different than forecast.
Sources
Stage, flood stages, impacts and crest history from NOAA’s National Water Prediction Service. Streamflow and the daily record from the U.S. Geological Survey.