Germany

Northern lights in Lower Saxony tonight

The aurora reaches Lower Saxony at about Kp 6.2 in its far north. SWPC forecasts a highest Kp of 3+ over the next three days, in the 00-03 UTC block on Thu, Sep 24, which falls short of it.

From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, read Sep 21, 10:36 UTC.

Towns in Lower Saxony

Most poleward first, with the Kp each needs and its forecast page.

  1. Cuxhaven54.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  2. Norden54.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  3. Wittmund54.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  4. Aurich54.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  5. Schortens54.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  6. Wilhelmshaven54.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  7. Langen54.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  8. Emden54.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  9. Nordenham53.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  10. Varel53.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  11. Loxstedt53.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  12. Hansestadt Stade53.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  13. Leer53.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  14. Bremervörde53.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  15. Weener53.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  16. Westerstede53.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.2
  17. Brake (Unterweser)53.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  18. Rastede53.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  19. Buxtehude53.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  20. Bad Zwischenahn53.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  21. Papenburg53.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  22. Neu Wulmstorf53.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  23. Edewecht53.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  24. Schwanewede53.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  25. Oldenburg53.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  26. Osterholz-Scharmbeck53.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  27. Seevetal53.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  28. Friesoythe53.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  29. Hude53.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  30. Wardenburg53.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  31. Buchholz in der Nordheide53.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  32. Lilienthal53.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  33. Winsen53.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  34. Delmenhorst53.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  35. Ganderkesee53.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  36. Haren53.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  37. Stuhr53.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  38. Oyten53.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  39. Rotenburg53.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  40. Lüneburg53.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  41. Achim53.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  42. Cloppenburg53.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  43. Wildeshausen53.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  44. Schneverdingen53.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  45. Meppen53.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  46. Syke53.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.3
  47. Bassum53.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  48. Verden53.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  49. Vechta53.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  50. Soltau53.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  51. Munster53.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  52. Lingen53.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  53. Lohne53.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  54. Walsrode53.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  55. Nordhorn53.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  56. Diepholz53.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  57. Uelzen53.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  58. Damme53.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  59. Nienburg53.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  60. Bad Bentheim53.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  61. Bramsche52.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  62. Wallenhorst52.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  63. Celle52.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  64. Osnabrück52.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  65. Neustadt am Rübenberge52.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  66. Bad Essen52.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.4
  67. Georgsmarienhütte52.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  68. Wunstorf52.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  69. Isernhagen Farster Bauerschaft52.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  70. Langenhagen52.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  71. Garbsen52.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  72. Melle52.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  73. Seelze52.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  74. Stadthagen52.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  75. Bothfeld52.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  76. Burgdorf52.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  77. Nordstadt52.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  78. Bückeburg52.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  79. Hannover52.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  80. Gifhorn52.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  81. Ronnenberg52.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  82. Lehrte52.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  83. Hemmingen52.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  84. Laatzen52.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  85. Rinteln52.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  86. Sehnde52.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  87. Hessisch Oldendorf52.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  88. Wolfsburg52.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  89. Bad Münder am Deister52.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  90. Springe52.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  91. Peine52.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  92. Sarstedt52.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  93. Hameln52.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  94. Vechelde52.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  95. Braunschweig52.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  96. Hildesheim52.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  97. Königslutter am Elm52.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  98. Bad Pyrmont52.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  99. Salzgitter52.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  100. Wolfenbüttel52.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  101. Helmstedt52.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.5
  102. Alfeld52.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.6
  103. Holzminden52.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.6
  104. Seesen52.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.6
  105. Einbeck52.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.6
  106. Goslar52.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.6
  107. Bad Harzburg52.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.6
  108. Clausthal-Zellerfeld52.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.6
  109. Uslar51.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.6
  110. Northeim51.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.6
  111. Göttingen51.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.6
  112. Hannoversch Münden51.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.7
  113. Duderstadt51.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.7

Kp by 3-hour block

SWPC’s planetary K index forecast, three days ahead. Kp is a single number for the whole planet, from magnetometers around the world, on a scale of 0 to 9 in thirds.

Block (UTC)KpLevelSeen fromCentral US
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
2.00Quiet64° geomag.55°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
0.67Quiet65° geomag.57°N
0.67Quiet65° geomag.57°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
2.00Quiet64° geomag.55°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
0.67Quiet65° geomag.57°N
0.67Quiet65° geomag.57°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
3.33Unsettled62° geomag.54°N

The forecast is for the planet, not for your sky. A block at Kp 5 means the field is disturbed enough for the aurora to reach 60 degrees geomagnetic somewhere along the night side; whether you see it depends on being on the night side, on darkness, and on the clouds.

What this means

Each place is placed by its geomagnetic latitude, measured from the geomagnetic dipole pole, and compared with the reach NOAA states for each storm level on its space weather scales: G1 (Kp 5) about 60 degrees geomagnetic, G2 55, G3 50, G4 45, G5 (Kp 9) 40. Reading that backwards gives the Kp a place needs. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly and the line runs from 66 degrees at Kp 0 to 60 at Kp 5.

The forecasts have different horizons and the pages keep them apart: OVATION is the only thing that knows whether an aurora is out now, and it reaches 30 to 90 minutes ahead; the planetary Kp forecast runs three days; the 27-day outlook names likely active days and is not a forecast of any one night. None of them knows the clouds, which is why a town page reads its own forecast for those.

Sources

From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center: the OVATION aurora forecast, the planetary K index forecast, the 3-day forecast, the 27-day outlook, its watches, warnings and alerts, and the real-time solar wind. Read Sep 21, 10:36 UTC.

Aurora forecastBy countryLive radar