Germany

Northern lights in Bavaria tonight

The aurora reaches Bavaria at about Kp 6.9 in its far north. SWPC forecasts a highest Kp of 2 over the next three days, in the 03-06 UTC block on Mon, Sep 21, which falls short of it.

From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center, read Sep 20, 14:19 UTC.

Towns in Bavaria

Most poleward first, with the Kp each needs and its forecast page.

  1. Bad Neustadt an der Saale50.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  2. Alzenau in Unterfranken50.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  3. Bad Kissingen50.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  4. Aschaffenburg50.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  5. Coburg50.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  6. Großostheim50.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  7. Lohr am Main50.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  8. Kronach50.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  9. Schweinfurt50.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  10. Hof50.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  11. Karlstadt50.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  12. Lichtenfels50.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 6.9
  13. Kulmbach50.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7
  14. Selb50.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7
  15. Würzburg50.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7
  16. Bamberg50.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7
  17. Kitzingen50.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7
  18. Bayreuth50.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7
  19. Marktredwitz50.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7
  20. Forchheim49.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7
  21. Erlangen49.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  22. Herzogenaurach49.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  23. Weiden49.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  24. Fürth49.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  25. Lauf an der Pegnitz49.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  26. Zirndorf49.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  27. Nuremberg49.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  28. Oberasbach49.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  29. Sulzbach-Rosenberg49.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  30. Ansbach49.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  31. Wendelstein49.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  32. Altdorf bei Nürnberg49.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  33. Schwabach49.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  34. Amberg49.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  35. Roth49.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  36. Neumarkt in der Oberpfalz49.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  37. Gunzenhausen49.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  38. Schwandorf in Bayern49.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.1
  39. Weißenburg in Bayern49.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.2
  40. Cham49.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.2
  41. Nördlingen49.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.2
  42. Regensburg49.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.2
  43. Kelheim48.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.2
  44. Donauwörth48.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.2
  45. Neuburg an der Donau48.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.2
  46. Ingolstadt48.9° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.2
  47. Dillingen an der Donau48.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.2
  48. Straubing48.8° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.2
  49. Günzburg48.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  50. Neu-Ulm48.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  51. Deggendorf48.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  52. Schrobenhausen48.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  53. Senden48.7° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  54. Pfaffenhofen an der Ilm48.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  55. Gersthofen48.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  56. Aichach48.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  57. Neusäß48.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  58. Dingolfing48.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  59. Augsburg48.6° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  60. Illertissen48.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  61. Friedberg48.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  62. Landshut48.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  63. Moosburg48.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  64. Bobingen48.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  65. Königsbrunn48.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  66. Freising48.5° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  67. Vilshofen48.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  68. Neufahrn bei Freising48.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  69. Dachau48.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  70. Unterschleißheim48.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  71. Passau48.4° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  72. Erding48.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  73. Karlsfeld48.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  74. Olching48.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  75. Garching48.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  76. Gröbenzell48.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  77. Fürstenfeldbruck48.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  78. Memmingen48.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  79. Puchheim48.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  80. Germering48.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  81. Landsberg am Lech48.3° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.3
  82. Gilching48.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  83. Munich48.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  84. Gauting48.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  85. Mühldorf48.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  86. Haar48.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  87. Vaterstetten48.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  88. Waldkraiburg48.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  89. Unterhaching48.2° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  90. Ottobrunn bei München48.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  91. Taufkirchen48.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  92. Starnberg48.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  93. Kaufbeuren48.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  94. Burghausen48.1° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  95. Wolfratshausen48.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  96. Marktoberdorf48.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  97. Kempten (Allgäu)48.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4
  98. Weilheim48.0° geomagnetic · forecastKp 7.4

Kp by 3-hour block

SWPC’s planetary K index forecast, three days ahead. Kp is a single number for the whole planet, from magnetometers around the world, on a scale of 0 to 9 in thirds.

Block (UTC)KpLevelSeen fromCentral US
1.00Quiet65° geomag.57°N
1.00Quiet65° geomag.57°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
2.00Quiet64° geomag.55°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
0.67Quiet65° geomag.57°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.33Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N
1.67Quiet64° geomag.56°N

The forecast is for the planet, not for your sky. A block at Kp 5 means the field is disturbed enough for the aurora to reach 60 degrees geomagnetic somewhere along the night side; whether you see it depends on being on the night side, on darkness, and on the clouds.

What this means

Each place is placed by its geomagnetic latitude, measured from the geomagnetic dipole pole, and compared with the reach NOAA states for each storm level on its space weather scales: G1 (Kp 5) about 60 degrees geomagnetic, G2 55, G3 50, G4 45, G5 (Kp 9) 40. Reading that backwards gives the Kp a place needs. Below Kp 5 the oval contracts more slowly and the line runs from 66 degrees at Kp 0 to 60 at Kp 5.

The forecasts have different horizons and the pages keep them apart: OVATION is the only thing that knows whether an aurora is out now, and it reaches 30 to 90 minutes ahead; the planetary Kp forecast runs three days; the 27-day outlook names likely active days and is not a forecast of any one night. None of them knows the clouds, which is why a town page reads its own forecast for those.

Sources

From NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center: the OVATION aurora forecast, the planetary K index forecast, the 3-day forecast, the 27-day outlook, its watches, warnings and alerts, and the real-time solar wind. Read Sep 20, 14:19 UTC.

Aurora forecastBy countryLive radar