Mesoscale Discussion 708

Issued

May 12, 2026, 12:38 PM EDT (16:38 UTC)

Expired

May 12, 2026, 2:45 PM EDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Tampa radar (KTBW), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

378 
ACUS11 KWNS 121638
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121638 
FLZ000-121845-

Mesoscale Discussion 0708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Areas affected...portions of Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 121638Z - 121845Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms (including a few
supercells) may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts and
hail this afternoon. The need for a weather watch is uncertain, but
will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...As of 1630 UTC, thunderstorm coverage was increasing
across portions of the northern and central FL Peninsula. Ample
diurnal heating is occurring south of an east-west oriented
baroclinic zone, supporting moderate destabilization. As residual
inhibition is removed by heating and large-scale ascent from an
approaching upper trough, storm coverage should increase further, in
vicinity to the baroclinic zone and across eastern shore sea breeze
corridors this afternoon. Moderate buoyancy (1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE)
and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear observed from area VADS and the
KMCO ACARS soundings are supportive of organized multicell clusters
and supercell structures. Despite modest mid-level lapse rates, hail
is possible with the stronger updrafts, along with damaging gusts
owing to high PWAT content.

Current radar trends show some intensification of ongoing storms
over the Gulf and onshore. Weak storm-scale rotation and
organization of this initial convection suggests the severe threat
is increasing. Current expectations are for these initial storms to
continue maturing with a hail and some damaging wind risk, as
additional storms move onshore and develop along the sea breeze
boundary this afternoon. The strongest convection is expected to be
tied to the sea-breeze boundary farther east where deep-layer shear
is more robust.

Eventually, numerous storms are likely to be ongoing over
eastern/central portions of the Peninsula. It currently appears the
severe threat will be more isolated given the lack of a more
coherent organized cluster. Still, an isolated severe risk appears
possible. Given this uncertainty, a watch is currently unlikely,
though convective trends will continue to be monitored.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 05/12/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   27628286 28308289 28568309 29128336 29478323 30088143
            29828113 26927999 26028000 25798014 26068146 26438215
            26728230 27288263 27528288 27628286 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2026Every mesoscale discussion in 2026

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.