Alert archive / Ohio / Mesoscale Discussions in 2026

Mesoscale Discussion 310

March 31, 202611 counties in Ohio

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 31, 2026, 4:22 PM EDT for 11 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 113 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 31, 2026, 4:22 PM EDT (20:22 UTC)
Expired: Mar 31, 2026, 6:15 PM EDT
In force: 113 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe thunderstorm watch 80

Counties Ashtabula County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Erie County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Huron County, OH, Lake County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Medina County, OH, Portage County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH

The radar

The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 9 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:26 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 83Mar 31, 6:25 PM EDT

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 8.4 hours before the alert went out and 186 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 91 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -221 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 852 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 216 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 197 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

620 
ACUS11 KWNS 312023
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 312022 
PAZ000-OHZ000-312215-

Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Areas affected...northern Ohio into northwestern Pennsylvania

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80...

Valid 312022Z - 312215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 80
continues.

SUMMARY...Potential for damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief
tornado or two,  is likely to increase as an evolving cluster of
storms overspreads much of the Greater Cleveland area by 5-6 PM EDT.

DISCUSSION...An evolving cluster of thunderstorms continues to
slowly intensify and organize.  Though not yet well-defined, an
associated lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulation appears to be
evolving, near/east of Toledo, with further intensification still
possible, as convection maintains east/southeasterly inflow of
unstable air characterized by mixed-layer CAPE up to 1000 J/kg for
at least another few hours.  Embedded within 40+ kt westerly
deep-layer mean flow it appears that the convective system will
overspread much of the Greater Cleveland area by 21-22Z, accompanied
by potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or
two.

..Kerr.. 03/31/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41658283 41728168 42048053 41507995 41038131 40938306
            41338312 41658283 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 31, 10:25 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Defiance, Fulton, Henry, Paulding, Putnam and 2 more	6 hr
Mar 31, 11:55 AM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Auglaize, Champaign, Darke, Defiance, Fulton and 16 more	2 hr
Mar 31, 2:59 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Ashland, Ashtabula, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Erie, Geauga and 22 more	8 hr
Mar 31, 6:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Allen, Auglaize, Defiance, Fulton, Hardin, Henry and 5 more	5 hr
Mar 31, 6:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Carroll, Columbiana	6 hr
Mar 31, 7:42 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allen, Ashland, Crawford, Cuyahoga, Defiance, Erie and 17 more	2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Ohio, 2026 Every mesoscale discussion in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.