Alert archive / Michigan / Red Flag Warnings in 2026

Red Flag Warning 2, NWS Gaylord, MI

May 16, 202623 counties in Michigan

NWS Gaylord, MI issued this red flag warning at May 16, 2026, 9:29 AM EDT for 23 counties in Michigan. It took effect at May 16, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 2026, 9:29 AM EDT (13:29 UTC)
In effect from
May 16, 2026, 2:00 PM EDT
Expired
May 16, 2026, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
6 hr
Issued by
NWS Gaylord, MI
All 23 counties

Alcona County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Benzie County, MI, Charlevoix County, MI, Cheboygan County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Emmet County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Grand Traverse County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Leelanau County, MI, Manistee County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Presque Isle County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Wexford County, MI

The radar

The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 19 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 13:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Alpena, MI (KAPX), launched 12:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 185 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2026-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Alpena, MI at 12:00Z on 2026-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 79 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1290 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
44 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
79 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
218 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

165 
WWUS83 KAPX 161329
RFWAPX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
929 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...High Fire Danger this Afternoon...

.Critically dry air will move in this afternoon behind a frontal
passage. Southwest winds will strengthen around midday to 10 to 15
mph with frequent gusts up to 20 to 25 mph. Winds will turn west
this afternoon, remaining gusty. Skies will become clear this
afternoon and temperatures will rise into the high 70s to low 80s.
Afternoon humidity will drop to 18% to 25%, and will overlap with
gusty winds starting early afternoon and lasting through the early
evening hours. These conditions will combine with low fuel
moisture and result in high fire danger this afternoon and
evening.

MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099-170000-
/O.UPG.KAPX.FW.A.0001.260516T1800Z-260517T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KAPX.FW.W.0002.260516T1800Z-260517T0000Z/
Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-
Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-
Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Charlevoix-
929 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING FOR DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR FIRE 
WEATHER ZONES 016, 017, 018, 020, 021, 022, 023, 024, 025, 026, 
027, 028, 029, 030, 031, 032, 033, 034, 035, 036, 041, 042, AND 
099...

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a Red Flag
Warning, which is in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT
this evening. The Fire Weather Watch is no longer in effect. 



* WIND...West winds 10 to 15 mph. Wind gusts 20 to 25 mph. 

* HUMIDITY...Relative humidity as low as 18 to 25 percent.

* HIGHEST THREAT...Interior northeast lower Michigan.

* IMPACTS...Any fires that develop will likely spread rapidly. 
  Outdoor burning is not recommended.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Red Flag Warning means that critical fire weather conditions
are either occurring now....or will shortly. A combination of
strong winds...low relative humidity...and low fuel moisture can 
contribute to extreme fire behavior.

&&

$$
ELD

Nearby

Red Flag Warnings in Michigan, 2026Every red flag warning in 2026

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.