Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025
Mesoscale Discussion 708
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 5, 2025, 8:27 PM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 5, 2025, 8:27 PM CDT (01:27 UTC)
- Expired
- May 5, 2025, 10:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Tornado watch 227
Counties Crane County, TX, Crockett County, TX, Ector County, TX, Irion County, TX, Midland County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reagan County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Upton County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX
The radar
The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 82 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 769 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -87 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1323 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 72 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 279 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 544 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.1
- Supercell composite
- 13.6
The text
As transmitted.
359
ACUS11 KWNS 060128
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060127
TXZ000-NMZ000-060330-
Mesoscale Discussion 0708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0827 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025
Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM
Concerning...Tornado Watch 227...
Valid 060127Z - 060330Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 227 continues.
SUMMARY...Potential for the development of at least a couple of
intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes is
likely to increase through 10 PM-Midnight CDT. A new tornado watch
will be needed.
DISCUSSION...Although attempts at deep convective development
persist along the dryline, and east of the dryline to the northwest
of Del Rio, relatively warm/dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere has
still contributed to at least some suppression. The strong westerly
shear, and continued westward retreat of the dryline toward the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, also have likely inhibited
development.
However, it does appear that thunderstorm initiation may be
increasingly underway near the intersection of the dryline and
stalled surface front near Wink TX. And potential for intensifying
thunderstorm development is likely to increase considerably further
across the Pecos Valley toward the Del Rio TX vicinity through mid
to late evening. Low-level moisture characterized by lower to mid
60s surface dew points is advecting along/south of the Edwards
Plateau, toward the Pecos Valley, as a short wave trough pivots
northeastward toward the region.
As mid-level height falls spread across the region coincident with
the low-level moistening and destabilization, which may included
CAPE increasing to 2000-3000 J/kg, the development of at least a
couple of intense supercells appears increasingly likely through
03-06Z.
..Kerr.. 05/06/2025
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...
LAT...LON 32450356 31700124 31160054 29930102 30010221 30510291
31510351 32450356
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 INSPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 8:57 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Andrews, Bandera, Crane, Crockett, Ector, Edwards and 23 more | 9 hr |
| May 5, 11:30 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crane, Crockett, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell and 3 more | 2 hr |
| May 6, 2:33 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Coke, Concho, Crane, Crockett, Edwards, Gillespie and 23 more | 87 min |
| May 6, 3:31 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Bandera, Bell, Blanco, Bosque, Brown, Burnet and 48 more | 8 hr |
| May 6, 5:06 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche, Concho and 19 more | 84 min |
| May 6, 6:11 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bandera, Bastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Brazos and 27 more | 3 hr |
| May 6, 7:55 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Comanche, Cooke, Denton, Eastland, Erath and 11 more | 95 min |
| May 6, 8:13 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Brazos, Burleson and 37 more | 12 hr |
| May 6, 9:17 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Bosque, Collin, Dallas, Denton, Ellis and 18 more | 58 min |
| May 6, 9:53 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Anderson, Bosque, Camp, Cass, Cherokee, Collin and 30 more | 6 hr |
| May 6, 10:50 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 20 more | 85 min |
| May 6, 1:19 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Hardin, Jasper, Nacogdoches, Newton, Sabine and 3 more | 86 min |
| May 6, 1:36 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Angelina, Cherokee, Gregg, Hardin, Harrison, Jasper and 11 more | 8 hr |
| May 6, 2:15 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bailey, Castro, Cochran, Deaf Smith, Gaines, Hale and 7 more | 90 min |
| May 6, 3:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Austin, Brazos, Burleson, Colorado, Fayette and 25 more | 87 min |
| May 6, 6:01 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Hardin, Jasper, Newton, Orange | 119 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2025Every mesoscale discussion in 2025
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.