Alert archive / Arizona / Mesoscale Discussions in 2025

Mesoscale Discussion 1663

July 13, 20254 counties in Arizona; Grant County, Hidalgo County, Luna County, New Mexico

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 13, 2025, 1:38 PM MST for 4 counties in Arizona; Grant County, Hidalgo County, Luna County, New Mexico. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 13, 2025, 1:38 PM MST (20:38 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2025, 4:15 PM MST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning: Severe potential...watch possible
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Cochise County, AZ, Graham County, AZ, Greenlee County, AZ, Santa Cruz County, AZ, Grant County, NM, Hidalgo County, NM, Luna County, NM

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 253 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 25 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -466 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2749 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -9 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 58 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

882 
ACUS11 KWNS 132039
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132038 
NMZ000-AZZ000-132315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1663
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Areas affected...southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 132038Z - 132315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon and into the evening, posing a severe wind
risk.  A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated over the high terrain this
afternoon across the region.  While moisture is meager for this time
of year, it is sufficient to support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
robust updrafts.  The 18Z Tucson sounding represents the
characteristic well-mixed, inverted-V sounding profiles across the
region.  Certainly, this environment will support dry-microburst
potential for the strongest storms.  With northeasterly midlevel
flow expected to increase this afternoon and evening, a more
organized wind threat could develop and move south-southwestward off
the higher terrain.  Convective trends will continue to be monitored
for the possibility of watch issuance.

..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/13/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   33980977 33830876 33570786 33230767 32500760 32060779
            31780818 31430855 31340940 31361050 31461089 31861121
            32191135 32561134 33451099 33980977 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arizona, 2025 Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2025 Every mesoscale discussion in 2025

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.