Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024

Mesoscale Discussion 607

May 2, 202431 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 2, 2024, 5:35 PM CDT for 31 counties in Texas. It was in force for 85 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 2, 2024, 5:35 PM CDT (22:35 UTC)
Expired
May 2, 2024, 7:00 PM CDT
In force
85 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 177
All 31 counties

Bandera County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Brown County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Coleman County, TX, Concho County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Haskell County, TX, Jones County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Knox County, TX, Mason County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Medina County, TX, Menard County, TX, Real County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Taylor County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Young County, TX, Zavala County, TX

The radar

The San Angelo radar (KSJT), 71 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 192 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2024-05-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2907 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2024-05-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 185 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2907 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-109 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
606 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
41 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
185 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
159 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.7
Supercell composite
5.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

422 
ACUS11 KWNS 022236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022235 
TXZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0607
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0535 PM CDT Thu May 02 2024

Areas affected...Northwest TX into Southwest TX into the TX Hill
Country

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177...

Valid 022235Z - 030000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177
continues.

SUMMARY...Supercells capable of very large hail up to 2-3" in
diameter and gusts up to 75 mph remain possible. Additional
development is possible over the Texas Hill Country and trends will
be monitored for additional watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts two mature supercells,
one in King County and the other farther south in Runnels County.
Visible satellite imagery reveals several attempts at additional
development between these two mature storms. Environmental
conditions support supercells and the general expectation is for the
newer development to mature. Primary severe risk with these storms
is very large hail around 2" to 3" in diameter. A few damaging gusts
up to 75 mph are possible as well. 

Farther south (from southwest TX into the TX Hill Country), cumulus
has been gradually deepening, although convective
initiation/lightning has not been realized. The mesoscale
environment in this area will be influenced by a westward-moving
outflow boundary, which could provide the additional lift needed for
convective initiation. Large to very hail is possible with new
updrafts. However, cooler temperatures behind the outflow could act
as a deterrent for sustained development, and the overall
longevity/severity of this newer development is uncertain. Some
initiation is possible south of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 177, and
convective trends will be monitored closely in this area for
additional watch issuance.

..Mosier/Guyer.. 05/02/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   30330071 31780037 33900003 33529859 29369895 28799982
            29350051 30330071

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 1, 7:12 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Bell, Bexar, Blanco, Bosque, Brazos and 34 more2 hr
May 1, 7:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAnderson, Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Brazos and 29 more8 hr
May 1, 7:56 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBriscoe, Childress, Collingsworth, Cottle, Crosby, Dickens and 8 more94 min
May 1, 10:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBastrop, Bell, Blanco, Brazos, Burleson, Burnet and 24 more114 min
May 1, 10:24 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCArcher, Baylor, Brown, Callahan, Clay, Coleman and 22 more2 hr
May 1, 10:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Bosque, Brown, Callahan, Clay and 34 more5 hr
May 2, 12:58 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Bastrop, Bell, Blanco, Brazos, Burleson and 19 more92 min
May 2, 5:54 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCChambers, Grimes, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty and 7 more96 min
May 2, 2:07 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaylor, Callahan, Cottle, Fisher, Foard, Haskell and 9 more2 hr
May 2, 3:05 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCArcher, Baylor, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman and 27 more9 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.