Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2024
Mesoscale Discussion 310
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 27, 2024, 1:52 PM CDT for 11 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 27, 2024, 1:52 PM CDT (18:52 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 27, 2024, 4:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Bell County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Comanche County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Erath County, TX, Hamilton County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Mills County, TX, Travis County, TX, Williamson County, TX
The radar
The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 107 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 6.9 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1686 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 27 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 108 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
963 ACUS11 KWNS 271853 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271852 TXZ000-272115- Mesoscale Discussion 0310 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024 Areas affected...parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 271852Z - 272115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...The risk for a few strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe hail and locally strong surface gusts appears likely to increase by 4-6 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Beneath cold air (including 500 mb temperatures around -23 to -26 C) associated with mid-level troughing shifting across the southern Great Plains, a deepening well-mixed boundary-layer continues to evolve with daytime heating across the Edwards Plateau into Hill Country. Near the leading edge of the stronger differential surface heating, where surface dew points are still as high as the mid/upper 40s F, destabilization is contributing to deepening convective development, within moderately sheared westerly to west-northwesterly deep-layer mean flow. With additional insolation, it appears that mixed-layer CAPE may increase in excess of 500 J/kg. As the sharp trailing flank of the mid-level cold pool begins to progress east-northeast of the Permian Basin, strongest instability is forecast to shift toward the I-35 corridor of central Texas through 21-23Z, where/when initiation and intensification of thunderstorm activity appear increasingly probable, perhaps aided by ascent associated with low-level warm advection. Given the evolving thermodynamic profiles and favorable deep-layer shear, a few supercell structures may develop and pose a risk for producing severe hail and locally strong surface gusts through early evening, before weakening. ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 32339814 31519735 30239760 30089850 32119908 32339814
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2024Every mesoscale discussion in 2024
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.