Mesoscale Discussion 310

Issued

Mar 23, 2023, 2:33 PM CDT (19:33 UTC)

Expired

Mar 23, 2023, 4:00 PM CDT

In force

87 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch likely

Chance of a watch

80%

The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 72 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

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• Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71Mar 23, 3:10 PM CDT

308 
ACUS11 KWNS 231934
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231933 
OKZ000-TXZ000-232100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0310
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2023

Areas affected...western north TX...southwest into central OK

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 231933Z - 232100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A convective watch (probably a severe thunderstorm) is
expected as storms develop between 300-400pm across southwest into
central OK.  Large to very large hail will be the primary severe
hazard with supercells, but a tornado and severe gusts are also
possible.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows towering cumulus over
Tillman County, OK and Wilbarger County, TX.  Convective initiation
appears imminent and other storm development is expected over the
next 1-2 hours northeastward along a slowly sagging cold front
draped near I-44.  

Surface observations show temperatures nearing 80 deg F over western
north TX to the immediate south of the boundary.  Considerable cloud
cover/showers have largely limited heating across south-central OK
during the past 1-2 hours, with temperatures holding in the low-mid
70s.  Moderate buoyancy has developed over western north TX and is
reduced with northeast extent into central OK due to cloud
cover/shower activity.   The 18z Norman, OK raob showed a layer of
very steep lapse rates between 700-450 mb (8.5 deg C/km).  Low-level
flow is not forecast to appreciably intensify until later this
evening and this will limit hodograph size and the potential for a
tornado.  However, strong southwesterly mid-level winds (60-65 kt at
500mb) will promote storm organization.  A few strong supercells may
eventually develop and emerge from a corridor extending from western
north TX northeastward into southwest OK through the early evening. 
Other strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop over parts
of central OK later this afternoon into the evening.

..Smith/Guyer.. 03/23/2023

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON   32979897 33130036 34529926 35629736 35659628 34749624
            32979897

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.