Alert archive / Wisconsin / Mesoscale Discussions in 2022
Mesoscale Discussion 708
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at May 10, 2022, 12:45 PM CDT for 32 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 10, 2022, 12:45 PM CDT (17:45 UTC)
- Expired
- May 10, 2022, 3:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch likely
- Chance of a watch
- 80%
All 32 counties
Adams County, WI, Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jackson County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Juneau County, WI, La Crosse County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Monroe County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Richland County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI
The radar
The La Crosse radar (KARX), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Green Bay/Straub, WI (KGRB), launched 12:00Z, 5.8 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 495 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -361 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 875 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 50 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 171 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 188 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted.
208
ACUS11 KWNS 101745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101745
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-102015-
Mesoscale Discussion 0708
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Tue May 10 2022
Areas affected...Parts of far northeast Iowa into central and
southern Wisconsin
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 101745Z - 102015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The risk of widely scattered thunderstorms capable of
large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and a couple tornadoes
will increase between 19Z-21Z. A watch will likely be needed for
parts of the area this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a
northeast/southwest-oriented quasi-stationary baroclinic zone
extending across central WI. Along and south of the boundary, strong
diurnal heating of an increasingly moist boundary layer (upper
60s/lower 70s surface dewpoints) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates
is contributing to a strongly unstable airmass. While southerly
surface winds will generally be weak across the warm sector, the
eventual development of a weak frontal wave along the boundary could
support subtle warm advection and slightly backed surface flow
across the warm sector.
Despite negligible large-scale ascent characterized by neutral to
slight midlevel height rises across the area, water vapor imagery
shows a belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft -- supporting
30-45 kt of effective shear amid the destabilizing airmass. Isolated
to widely scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
baroclinic zone and spread east-northeastward this afternoon.
Initially, discrete to semi-discrete supercell structures will be
capable of isolated large to very large hail and damaging wind
gusts, though small, clockwise-turning low-level hodographs could
support a tornado or two with the more organized/discrete
supercells. With time, storms should gradually grow upscale with
eastward extent amid minimal CINH, when damaging winds and sporadic
large hail will be the primary concerns. A watch will likely be
needed this afternoon.
..Weinman/Mosier.. 05/10/2022
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...ARX...
LAT...LON 43699125 44269094 44999018 45278965 45468866 45298818
44638798 44078795 43288820 42988858 42818899 42709004
42659077 42749114 43259139 43699125SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 7:48 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn, Eau Claire, Jackson and 10 more | 87 min |
| May 9, 8:17 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Clark, Crawford, Jackson, La Crosse, Monroe, Richland and 2 more | 5 hr |
| May 9, 9:05 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Crawford, Richland | 85 min |
| May 9, 11:07 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Crawford, Grant, Iowa, Juneau, Marquette and 6 more | 113 min |
| May 10, 2:19 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calumet, Clark, Columbia, Crawford and 37 more | 7 hr |
| May 10, 6:45 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Brown, Calumet, Clark, Columbia, Dodge and 24 more | 90 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2022Every mesoscale discussion in 2022
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.