Alert archive / Virginia / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2021

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 331

July 1, 20215 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 1, 2021, 12:46 PM EDT for 5 states. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 1, 2021, 12:46 PM EDT (16:46 UTC)
Expired
Jul 1, 2021, 8:00 PM EDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
0.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 108 counties

Kent County, DE, New Castle County, DE, Sussex County, DE, Anne Arundel County, MD, Baltimore County, MD, Calvert County, MD, Caroline County, MD, Carroll County, MD, Cecil County, MD, Charles County, MD, City of Baltimore, MD, Dorchester County, MD, Frederick County, MD, Harford County, MD, Howard County, MD, Kent County, MD, Montgomery County, MD, Prince George's County, MD, Queen Anne's County, MD, Saint Mary's County, MD, Somerset County, MD, Talbot County, MD, Wicomico County, MD, Worcester County, MD, Atlantic County, NJ, Burlington County, NJ, Camden County, NJ, Cape May County, NJ, Cumberland County, NJ, Gloucester County, NJ, Mercer County, NJ, Middlesex County, NJ, Monmouth County, NJ, Ocean County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Bucks County, PA, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Montgomery County, PA, Philadelphia County, PA, Accomack County, VA, Albemarle County, VA, Amelia County, VA, Amherst County, VA, Appomattox County, VA, Arlington County, VA, Bedford County, VA, Buckingham County, VA, Campbell County, VA, Caroline County, VA, Charles City County, VA, Charlotte County, VA, Chesterfield County, VA, City of Alexandria, VA, City of Charlottesville, VA, City of Colonial Heights, VA, City of Fairfax, VA, City of Falls Church, VA, City of Fredericksburg, VA, City of Hampton, VA, City of Hopewell, VA, City of Lynchburg, VA, City of Manassas, VA, City of Manassas Park, VA, City of Newport News, VA, City of Petersburg, VA, City of Poquoson, VA, City of Richmond, VA, City of Williamsburg, VA, Culpeper County, VA, Cumberland County, VA, Dinwiddie County, VA, Essex County, VA, Fairfax County, VA, Fauquier County, VA, Fluvanna County, VA, Gloucester County, VA, Goochland County, VA, Greene County, VA, Hanover County, VA, Henrico County, VA, James City County, VA, King and Queen County, VA, King George County, VA, King William County, VA, Lancaster County, VA, Loudoun County, VA, Louisa County, VA, Madison County, VA, Mathews County, VA, Middlesex County, VA, Nelson County, VA, New Kent County, VA, Northampton County, VA, Northumberland County, VA, Nottoway County, VA, Orange County, VA, Powhatan County, VA, Prince Edward County, VA, Prince George County, VA, Prince William County, VA, Rappahannock County, VA, Richmond County, VA, Spotsylvania County, VA, Stafford County, VA, Surry County, VA, Westmoreland County, VA, York County, VA

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
2%
Ten or more severe wind reports
50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
5%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
5%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
60%

Warnings issued inside it

44 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 1, 1:03 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery42 min
Jul 1, 1:36 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXSpotsylvania, Stafford, City of Fredericksburg39 min
Jul 1, 1:44 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Montgomery, Prince George's46 min
Jul 1, 1:47 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXSpotsylvania43 min
Jul 1, 1:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXLoudoun52 min
Jul 1, 1:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCaroline46 min
Jul 1, 2:10 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXHoward, Montgomery50 min
Jul 1, 2:11 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCulpeper, Fairfax, Fauquier, Loudoun, Prince William, Stafford and 2 more49 min
Jul 1, 2:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Prince George's42 min
Jul 1, 2:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXKing George19 min
Jul 1, 2:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery47 min
Jul 1, 2:37 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQEssex, Westmoreland23 min
Jul 1, 2:40 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery35 min
Jul 1, 2:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Baltimore, Howard, City of Baltimore64 min
Jul 1, 2:43 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXCharles, Montgomery, Prince George's47 min
Jul 1, 3:06 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXMontgomery, Prince George's24 min
Jul 1, 3:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, Queen Anne's, Talbot48 min
Jul 1, 3:13 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Chester, Lehigh, Montgomery47 min
Jul 1, 3:14 PM EDTFlash Flood Warning Considerable damage threatLWXArlington, Fairfax, City of Alexandria, City of Falls Church3 hr
Jul 1, 3:18 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCharles City, Chesterfield, Henrico, City of Colonial Heights, City of Hopewell42 min
Jul 1, 3:20 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Calvert, Prince George's55 min
Jul 1, 3:26 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLWXBaltimore, Cecil, Harford38 min
Jul 1, 3:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCharles City, Chesterfield, Henrico, Prince George, City of Colonial Heights, City of Hopewell and 1 more46 min
Jul 1, 3:31 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningLWXMontgomery3 hr
Jul 1, 3:33 PM EDTTornado WarningLWXAnne Arundel, Prince George's27 min
Jul 1, 3:49 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQCharles City, James City, New Kent41 min
Jul 1, 3:50 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHINew Castle40 min
Jul 1, 3:51 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQDorchester, Wicomico54 min
Jul 1, 3:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICaroline, Kent, Queen Anne's, Talbot49 min
Jul 1, 4:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHISussex52 min
Jul 1, 4:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent52 min
Jul 1, 4:15 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQDorchester30 min
Jul 1, 4:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHINew Castle48 min
Jul 1, 4:28 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQEssex, Gloucester, James City, King and Queen, King William, Lancaster and 5 more62 min
Jul 1, 4:32 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, New Castle, Sussex43 min
Jul 1, 4:55 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICape May, Cumberland, Salem80 min
Jul 1, 4:57 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIKent, Sussex22 min
Jul 1, 4:59 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIBurlington, Camden, Gloucester, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth and 2 more46 min
Jul 1, 5:02 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIBurlington, Mercer28 min
Jul 1, 5:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIKent, Sussex48 min
Jul 1, 5:21 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQSomerset, Worcester39 min
Jul 1, 5:27 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 5 more93 min
Jul 1, 5:29 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningAKQDorchester, Somerset, Wicomico, Worcester29 min
Jul 1, 5:35 PM EDTTornado WarningPHIMercer, Monmouth, Ocean25 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-07-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 604 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Washington/Dulle, VA at 12:00Z on 2021-07-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 61 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
604 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-48 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
928 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
61 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
108 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

285 
WWUS20 KWNS 011643
SEL1  
SPC WW 011643
DCZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-VAZ000-CWZ000-020000-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 331
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 PM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Delaware
  Maryland
  Central and southern New Jersey
  Extreme southeastern Pennsylvania
  Central and northeastern Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM
  until 800 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form near and east
of the Blue Ridge this afternoon, and storms will spread eastward
toward Chesapeake Bay and the Atlantic coast through this evening. 
The storm environment favors a mix of multicell clusters and line
segments capable of producing damaging winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south southwest
of Richmond VA to 15 miles west northwest of Philadelphia PA. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
27030.

...Thompson

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 1, 11:45 AM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex2 hr
Jul 1, 2:36 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle84 min
Jul 1, 4:16 PM EDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKent, New Castle, Sussex89 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Virginia, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Maryland, 2021Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Jersey, 2021Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.