Mesoscale Discussion 98

Issued

Feb 15, 2021, 8:06 PM EST (01:06 UTC)

Expired

Feb 16, 2021, 1:30 AM EST

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Heavy snow

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 120 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

463 
ACUS11 KWNS 160107
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160106 
NYZ000-PAZ000-160630-

Mesoscale Discussion 0098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021

Areas affected...Western into northern New York

Concerning...Heavy snow 

Valid 160106Z - 160630Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow is expected to develop in the vicinity of the
Canadian border in western and northern New York this evening, most
likely by 9-10 PM EST. Snowfall rates of 1+ inch an hour are
possible.

DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough is currently moving
northeastward out of eastern Kentucky and southern Ohio per water
vapor imagery. As this feature continues into the Northeast this
evening, a surface cyclone will deepen in Pennsylvania and New
England. 850-700 hPa frontogenetical lift along the Canadian border
aided by approaching mid-level ascent will promote 1+ inch per hour
snowfall rates this evening. An area of heavier precipitation in
northeastern Ohio will likely enter western New York by 9-10 PM EST.
A stronger warm nose (nearly +4 C) observed on the 00Z PBZ sounding
has kept precipitation more mixed to the south, but the observed 00Z
BUF sounding shows a profile fully supportive of snow. Warm
advection in the low to mid-levels should remain weak enough that
precipitation remains as snow. Peak snowfall rates appear likely in
the 11 PM to 3 AM EST period when mid-level ascent in the dendritic
growth layer will be maximized.

..Wendt.. 02/16/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE...

LAT...LON   43437913 43947726 44857537 44907412 44307381 43457457
            42607682 42207816 41807917 41848003 42538034 43437913

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.