Mesoscale Discussion 977

Issued

Jun 15, 2021, 1:33 PM EDT (17:33 UTC)

Expired

Jun 15, 2021, 4:00 PM EDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

The Tallahassee radar (KTLH), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

077 
ACUS11 KWNS 151733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151733 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-152000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0977
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 PM CDT Tue Jun 15 2021

Areas affected...northern Florida Peninsula through the Florida
Panhandle and far southern Georgia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 151733Z - 152000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage across
northern Florida into the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. A few
instances of downburst winds will be possible with the stronger
storms.

DISCUSSION...Early this afternoon thunderstorms are ongoing in
vicinity of a differential heating boundary across central and north
central Florida. Farther north, the atmosphere continues to
destabilize from the northern Florida Peninsula through the FL
Panhandle and extreme southern GA. Latest objective analysis shows
MLCAPE from 3000-3500 J/kg. The 12Z morning RAOB data from JAX and
TLH indicated minimal convective inhibition. Thunderstorms will soon
develop along an east-west oriented pre-frontal trough and in
association with sea breeze boundaries as the surface layer
destabilizes in the presence of strong diabatic heating. Though
vertical shear is weak and supportive of pulse / multicell storms,
the thermodynamic environment will promote a threat of isolated
downburst winds through early evening.

..Dial/Grams.. 06/15/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...MOB...

LAT...LON   30678419 31078250 31108171 30318158 29318126 28808103
            28738194 29598266 30098385 30058520 30448606 30608679
            30568748 30998723 30888558 30678419

Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.