Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 930

June 11, 202119 counties in Missouri

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 11, 2021, 7:32 PM CDT for 19 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 118 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 11, 2021, 7:32 PM CDT (00:32 UTC)
Expired
Jun 11, 2021, 9:30 PM CDT
In force
118 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe thunderstorm watch 260

Counties Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Polk County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 10 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 42 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-06-12Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2670 joules per kilogram.LCLEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2021-06-12The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -54 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2670 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-4 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1310 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
26 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-54 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
-1.0
Supercell composite
-10.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

134 
ACUS11 KWNS 120032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120032 
MOZ000-120230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0930
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0732 PM CDT Fri Jun 11 2021

Areas affected...Southwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260...

Valid 120032Z - 120230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 260
continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind, and occasional hail, will
continue across WW 260 for the next couple of hours as storms
develop along a southward-moving outflow boundary.

DISCUSSION...KSGF imagery from the past hour has shown transient,
but strong convection developing along a southward propagating
outflow boundary. Although individual cells have largely been
quickly displaced to the north/cool side of the boundary, GOES IR
imagery shows occasional rapid cloud top cooling indicative of
intense convection. Additionally, weak convection has attempted to
mature along a weak surface confluence axis draped to the southeast
across south-central MO, but weak forcing for ascent has yielded
transient convection thus far. Overall, this trend will likely
continue for the next few hours as forcing along the outflow
provides sufficient lift for a few more robust updraft pulses. It
remains unclear if a balanced MCS will develop along this outflow
given its rapid southward motion, but moderate instability and
sufficient deep-layer shear will support the potential for at least
sporadic severe downburst winds (and occasional severe hail) across
southwest MO. 

A more organized cluster moving across southeast KS may move into
parts of far southwest MO in the coming hours and will likely
introduce a more robust severe wind threat for the KS/OK/AR/MO
region.

..Moore/Dial.. 06/12/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...

LAT...LON   36969460 37499453 37819424 37989266 37779234 37169216
            36699218 36529311 36549453 36969460

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jun 11, 8:54 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBarry, Christian, Douglas, Jasper, Lawrence, McDonald and 4 more2 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.