Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 902

June 9, 20214 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 9, 2021, 5:44 PM CDT for 4 counties in Texas. It was in force for 91 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jun 9, 2021, 5:44 PM CDT (22:44 UTC)
Expired
Jun 9, 2021, 7:15 PM CDT
In force
91 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%

Counties Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Upton County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 230 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 223 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-06-09Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3671 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2021-06-09The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 16 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3671 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-261 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
619 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
153 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

345 
ACUS11 KWNS 092244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092244 
TXZ000-100015-

Mesoscale Discussion 0902
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0544 PM CDT Wed Jun 09 2021

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas and the Big Bend

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092244Z - 100015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible
through the evening.

DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along and near the dryline with
the strongest storms in the vicinity of Fort Stockton. Shear is
quite weak (~20 to 25 kts) which has mostly limited storm
organization, but these storms are slowly drifting toward a more
unstable airmass east of the dryline with 4000 to 5000 J/kg MLCAPE
per SPC mesoanalysis. A few instances of large hail and severe wind
gusts may be possible with the stronger updrafts. However, these
storms likely won't persist long after sunset given the lack of
forcing, and an airmass downstream which already shows some CINH
which should only increase as the boundary layer cools.

..Bentley/Dial.. 06/09/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON   29490429 30410393 31420300 31850262 31780196 30980202
            29760221 29720246 29620267 29310278 29140286 28930311
            28970341 29170381 29490429

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.