Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 838
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 2, 2021, 2:34 PM CDT for 13 counties in Alabama; 43 counties in Mississippi; Hardin County, McNairy County, Tennessee. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 2, 2021, 2:34 PM CDT (19:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 2, 2021, 4:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
All 58 counties
Choctaw County, AL, Colbert County, AL, Fayette County, AL, Franklin County, AL, Greene County, AL, Lamar County, AL, Lauderdale County, AL, Lawrence County, AL, Limestone County, AL, Marion County, AL, Pickens County, AL, Sumter County, AL, Winston County, AL, Alcorn County, MS, Attala County, MS, Benton County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Itawamba County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lee County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marshall County, MS, Monroe County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Pontotoc County, MS, Prentiss County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Tippah County, MS, Tishomingo County, MS, Union County, MS, Warren County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS, Hardin County, TN, McNairy County, TN
The radar
The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 68 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 205 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -11 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 551 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 39 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 66 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted.
800
ACUS11 KWNS 021935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021934
ALZ000-TNZ000-MSZ000-022130-
Mesoscale Discussion 0838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Wed Jun 02 2021
Areas affected...Much of MS...Western AL...Southwest TN
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 021934Z - 022130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the
afternoon across portions of MS, AL, and southwest TN. A few of
these storms may become strong enough to produce damaging wind gusts
and/or isolated hail.
DISCUSSION...Broad low-level confluence is contributing to banded
multicellular storm development across much of MS and into southwest
TN. Thus far, updrafts have been rather transient with relatively
short duration. However, the air mass continues to further
destabilize amid strong heating and only partly cloudy skies. Recent
mesoanalysis estimates MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg from most of MS, with
around 1500 J/kg reaching across much of western TN. Instability
drops off quickly with eastern extent, with only around 500 J/kg of
MLCAPE across central AL. Even so, persistent low-level confluence
is expected to result in increasing thunderstorm coverage, and
vertical shear is strong enough to support a few more organized
updrafts. Additionally, greater storm coverage increases the
likelihood of storm mergers and resulting brief updraft
intensification. Primary threat with any stronger storms is damaging
wind gusts, although isolated hail is also possible.
..Mosier/Hart.. 06/02/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...
LAT...LON 34938940 35348839 34798691 31728832 31989104 34188999
34938940Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Tennessee, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.