Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 82
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Feb 14, 2021, 7:04 PM CST for 41 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 14, 2021, 7:04 PM CST (01:04 UTC)
- Expired
- Feb 15, 2021, 1:00 AM CST
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Heavy snow
All 41 counties
Bandera County, TX, Bastrop County, TX, Bell County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Brazos County, TX, Burleson County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, Coryell County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Falls County, TX, Fayette County, TX, Freestone County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Grimes County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Hays County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Lee County, TX, Leon County, TX, Limestone County, TX, Llano County, TX, Madison County, TX, Mason County, TX, McLennan County, TX, Medina County, TX, Milam County, TX, Real County, TX, Robertson County, TX, Travis County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Walker County, TX, Washington County, TX, Williamson County, TX, Zavala County, TX
The radar
The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:05 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Del Rio, TX (KDRT), launched 00:00Z, 1.1 hours before the alert went out and 230 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 655 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 89 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -163 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 189 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
907
ACUS11 KWNS 150104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150104
TXZ000-150700-
Mesoscale Discussion 0082
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0704 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021
Areas affected...Portions of Texas Hill Country into Southeast Texas
Concerning...Heavy snow
Valid 150104Z - 150700Z
SUMMARY...Pockets of moderate to heavy snow are possible in parts of
the DFW metro and eastward in the short term. The next area of heavy
snow to develop will likely be within the Edwards Plateau perhaps by
8-10 PM CST. This heavy snow will develop eastward into Southeast
Texas through the evening and overnight.
DISCUSSION...Current water vapor imagery shows another area of
mid-level ascent moving through the Big Bend region. This ascent is
forecast to pivot through the base of the broad upper-level trough
as it moves east. MRMS radar imagery shows heavier bands of
precipitation developing in Mexico that should begin to move into
the Edwards Plateau within the next 1-3 hours. 1 inch per hour
snowfall rates are possible as the favorable lift within the
dendritic growth layer moves through the region.
A band of moderate to heavy snow now moving east through the DFW
metro area will continue to bring around 1 inch per hour rates.
However, this is expected to decrease with time as the more
favorable synoptic ascent shifts to the south.
..Wendt.. 02/15/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...
LAT...LON 29310099 29760093 30140079 30769962 31429820 31989708
32019670 31799599 31089549 30539554 29999663 29099846
28729991 28850060 29190093 29310099SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 10:53 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chambers, Hardin, Jasper, Jefferson, Liberty, Newton and 2 more | 4 hr |
| Feb 15, 1:08 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Angelina, Bowie, Camp, Cass, Cherokee and 27 more | 6 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.