Mesoscale Discussion 593

Issued

May 11, 2021, 1:46 PM CDT (18:46 UTC)

Expired

May 11, 2021, 3:45 PM CDT

In force

119 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

20%

The Eglin Afb radar (KEVX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

777 
ACUS11 KWNS 111847
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 111846 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-112045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0593
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CDT Tue May 11 2021

Areas affected...Southern Alabama...southwest Georgia...and the
western Florida Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 111846Z - 112045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A loosely-organized squall line may be capable of damaging
winds as it continues east along the Gulf Coast. However, confidence
in this threat is low, and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Recent velocity data from KMOB shows outflow associated
with a weak and loosely organized squall line becoming slightly more
organized as it propagates to the east across southwestern AL and
into the FL Panhandle. VWP observations from KMOB show 20-30 knots
winds in the lowest 2-3 km associated with this line, which is
supported by recent observed wind gusts up to 25 knots at the
surface. While severe winds do not appear likely in the near term,
the potential for damaging winds may increase over the next 1-3
hours as the line moves into southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL
Panhandle where low-level lapse rates are steepening to 7-8 C/km
amid modest daytime heating. The environment ahead of this line
remains supportive for storm maintenance, but it is not immediately
clear if the damaging wind potential will be realized along the
entire line - mainly due to weak low-level shear in the lowest 4 km.
Pockets of intensification are noted in GOES IR imagery over the
past 30 minutes, which suggests that at least localized strong winds
are possible. Due to the low confidence in a more widespread/robust
severe threat, a watch is not expected.

..Moore/Thompson.. 05/11/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   31398810 31858797 32168747 32368612 32418533 32298476
            31718439 31008445 30178501 30048536 30298602 30378661
            30328707 30278761 30288793 30928802 31398810

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Georgia, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Florida, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.