Mesoscale Discussion 556

Issued

May 7, 2021, 12:00 PM MDT (18:00 UTC)

Expired

May 7, 2021, 2:00 PM MDT

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch unlikely

Chance of a watch

5%

Counties Las Animas County, CO, Bernalillo County, NM, Cibola County, NM, Colfax County, NM, Guadalupe County, NM, Harding County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Los Alamos County, NM, Mora County, NM, Rio Arriba County, NM, San Miguel County, NM, Sandoval County, NM, Santa Fe County, NM, Socorro County, NM, Taos County, NM, Torrance County, NM, Union County, NM, Valencia County, NM

The Albuquerque radar (KABX), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

423 
ACUS11 KWNS 071800
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071800 
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-072000-

Mesoscale Discussion 0556
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 PM CDT Fri May 07 2021

Areas affected...Northern New Mexico...southeast Colorado...and the
far western Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 071800Z - 072000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...One or two strong to severe storms may develop within a
region of developing thunderstorms over the next few hours. This
threat should remain isolated and a watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway from northwest NM
into far southeast CO amid strong diurnal heating and orographic
ascent over the terrain of the southern Rockies. GOES IR imagery has
shown steady cloud top cooling with an uptick in lightning noted as
a few storms begin to intensify. Despite limited boundary-layer
moisture, cool temperatures aloft and warm surface temperatures are
supporting MUCAPE values between 500-1500 J/kg. RAP mesoanalysis
also shows increasing surface-based instability as heating continues
to erode lingering inhibition. Deep-layer shear over the region is
only marginally supportive of organized convection with 0-6 km bulk
shear values between 25-30 knots. However, the increasing
instability atop a well-mixed boundary layer (featuring 0-3 km lapse
rates near 9 C/km) will support the potential for a few strong
downdrafts that could produce damaging wind gusts. Isolated
instances of marginally severe hail are also possible with any
stronger updraft pulses, but the overall severe threat is expected
to be fairly isolated across north/northwest NM and far southeast
CO. A more organized severe threat is expected to evolve in the mid
to late afternoon hours across eastern NM and into the OK/TX
Panhandles as the developing convection grows upscale.

..Moore/Thompson.. 05/07/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON   35840321 35130402 34360451 33410481 32940520 33040586
            33570662 33630746 33620789 33870833 34770838 35520819
            36340784 36630664 37060559 37330520 37590470 37670356
            37600298 36970254 36240268 35840321

Mesoscale Discussions in New Mexico, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Colorado, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.