Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 384
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 14, 2021, 4:49 PM CDT for 14 counties in Texas. It was in force for 116 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 14, 2021, 4:49 PM CDT (21:49 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 14, 2021, 6:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 116 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Archer County, TX, Baylor County, TX, Callahan County, TX, Clay County, TX, Eastland County, TX, Jack County, TX, Jones County, TX, Palo Pinto County, TX, Parker County, TX, Shackelford County, TX, Stephens County, TX, Throckmorton County, TX, Wise County, TX, Young County, TX
The radar
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 129 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 821 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 219 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 290 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.1
The text
As transmitted.
503
ACUS11 KWNS 142149
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142149
TXZ000-142345-
Mesoscale Discussion 0384
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0449 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021
Areas affected...northwest Texas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 142149Z - 142345Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A set of splitting cells may continue to pose a damaging
hail risk over the next 1-2 hours, with a general weakening trend
expected as they move northeastward this evening. A watch is not
expected due to limited coverage.
DISCUSSION...Splitting cells exist over Taylor and Jones counties as
of 21:45Z, with a very large hail core noted earlier on the
southern/right-moving cell. These cells are located within the
elevated MUCAPE plume, with weak warm advection occurring around 850
mb aiding lift.
The theta-e gradient at 850 mb is forecast to remain
quasistationary, with little increase in advection through evening.
The strong deep-layer effective shear may allow these cells to
persist in severe fashion for a row or two of counties east of their
current location. However, a weakening trend is anticipated after
00Z as they move farther away from the instability axis.
..Jewell/Hart.. 04/14/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32299848 32139938 32249979 32539994 32869996 33639924
33899823 33669774 33249755 32929758 32559766 32299848SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 5:17 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Angelina, Hardin, Jasper, Liberty, Montgomery, Nacogdoches and 9 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 14, 12:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bee, Colorado, DeWitt, Fort Bend, Goliad, Gonzales and 8 more | 2 hr |
| Apr 14, 1:40 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Aransas, Bee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, Fort Bend and 10 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 14, 5:27 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Aransas, Bee, Brazoria, Calhoun, Chambers, DeWitt and 12 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.