Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 23
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 24, 2021, 2:08 PM CST for 5 counties in Arkansas; 10 counties in Oklahoma; 26 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 24, 2021, 2:08 PM CST (20:08 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 24, 2021, 4:45 PM CST
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
All 41 counties
Hempstead County, AR, Howard County, AR, Little River County, AR, Miller County, AR, Sevier County, AR, Atoka County, OK, Bryan County, OK, Carter County, OK, Choctaw County, OK, Jefferson County, OK, Johnston County, OK, Love County, OK, Marshall County, OK, McCurtain County, OK, Pushmataha County, OK, Bowie County, TX, Camp County, TX, Cass County, TX, Collin County, TX, Cooke County, TX, Dallas County, TX, Delta County, TX, Denton County, TX, Fannin County, TX, Franklin County, TX, Grayson County, TX, Hopkins County, TX, Hunt County, TX, Kaufman County, TX, Lamar County, TX, Montague County, TX, Morris County, TX, Rains County, TX, Red River County, TX, Rockwall County, TX, Tarrant County, TX, Titus County, TX, Upshur County, TX, Van Zandt County, TX, Wise County, TX, Wood County, TX
The radar
The Dallas/Ft Worth radar (KFWS), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 12:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 32 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -48 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 445 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 57 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 245 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 122 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
054
ACUS11 KWNS 242009
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 242008
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-242245-
Mesoscale Discussion 0023
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0208 PM CST Sun Jan 24 2021
Areas affected...northern Texas...far southern Oklahoma and
southwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 242008Z - 242245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A storm or two may produce marginally severe hail later
today, mainly over northeast Texas.
DISCUSSION...A diffuse warm front currently exists over north TX and
into northern LA, with warm advection occurring just off the surface
ahead of the upper trough. This is occurring beneath modestly steep
midlevel lapse rates, with plenty of strong southwest flow aloft to
elongate hodographs.
Warm air advection and lift will increase along the Red River
through 00Z with 850 mb winds increasing to over 30 kt. Forecast
soundings show the increasing theta-e around 850 mb will lead to
better instability, although still not particularly strong. Given
the strong winds aloft and deep layer shear, a few of the storms
that form this afternoon may eventually consolidate into marginally
severe hail cores.
..Jewell/Hart.. 01/24/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34329746 34609524 34119371 33669363 32939403 32489516
32489698 32589732 33119785 33679824 34079809 34329746Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.