Alert archive / Alabama / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021

Mesoscale Discussion 1672

September 1, 202122 counties in Alabama

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Sep 1, 2021, 2:35 PM CDT for 22 counties in Alabama. It was in force for 115 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Sep 1, 2021, 2:35 PM CDT (19:35 UTC)
Expired
Sep 1, 2021, 4:30 PM CDT
In force
115 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Concerning
Severe potential...watch unlikely
Chance of a watch
5%
All 22 counties

Autauga County, AL, Barbour County, AL, Bibb County, AL, Bullock County, AL, Butler County, AL, Chilton County, AL, Coosa County, AL, Crenshaw County, AL, Dallas County, AL, Elmore County, AL, Hale County, AL, Jefferson County, AL, Lee County, AL, Lowndes County, AL, Macon County, AL, Montgomery County, AL, Perry County, AL, Pike County, AL, Russell County, AL, Shelby County, AL, Tallapoosa County, AL, Tuscaloosa County, AL

The radar

The Maxwell AFB radar (KMXX), 62 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Birmingham, AL (KBMX), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 69 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2021-09-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 170 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Birmingham, AL at 12:00Z on 2021-09-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 51 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
170 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
990 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

997 
ACUS11 KWNS 011936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011935 
ALZ000-012130-

Mesoscale Discussion 1672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0235 PM CDT Wed Sep 01 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central and southern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 011935Z - 012130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A cluster of strong thunderstorms may pose a risk for a
few strong wind gusts/downbursts this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As of 1915 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
of thunderstorms across central Alabama moving south-southeastward
at around 25 kt. Ongoing within a weakly forced but warm, moist, and
unstable environment (1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) these storms are
forecast to continue to move southeastward across portions of
central and southern Alabama this afternoon. Model soundings and
regional VADs show little deep-layer shear owing to weak
northwesterly flow aloft less that 20 kt. This suggest any
convective organization will be limited and tied to the strength of
the southeastward propagating cold pool. DCAPE values around
1200-1400 J/kg may support a few stronger downdrafts capable of
isolated damaging wind gusts this afternoon and evening before the
cluster weakens with the loss of diurnal heating. Given the limited
threat for organized severe weather a watch is unlikely.

..Lyons/Grams.. 09/01/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   33388740 33708696 33708668 33248599 33058557 32718525
            32408510 32268509 31748541 31468573 31268665 31628688
            32058721 32828785 33208796 33388740

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Alabama, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.