Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 155
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 12, 2021, 8:57 AM CST for 16 counties in Kansas; Alfalfa County, Grant County, Woods County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 93 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 12, 2021, 8:57 AM CST (14:57 UTC)
- Expired
- Mar 12, 2021, 10:30 AM CST
- In force
- 93 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Allen County, KS, Barber County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Coffey County, KS, Comanche County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Grant County, OK, Woods County, OK
The radar
The Wichita radar (KICT), 25 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 219 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 813 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 84 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 293 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 419 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 1.0
The text
As transmitted.
493
ACUS11 KWNS 121458
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121457
KSZ000-OKZ000-121630-
Mesoscale Discussion 0155
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 AM CST Fri Mar 12 2021
Areas affected...Far northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 121457Z - 121630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail is possible for the next several
hours, primarily across southern Kansas
DISCUSSION...Numerous thunderstorms have developed within a broad
region of isentropic ascent across northern Oklahoma and southern
Kansas. The 12Z DDC RAOB showed an environment characterized by 600
J/kg MUCAPE, 7.5 to 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates, and effective
shear in excess of 40 kts. SPC mesoanalysis suggests a similar
environment is likely present across much of southern Kansas and
should remain somewhat constant through the morning. Therefore, a
few stronger updrafts capable of large hail are expected, but it is
expected to be intermittent due to the limited instability. The best
chance for stronger/longer lived strong updrafts will be on the
southern portion of this convective cluster across southern Kansas.
Due to the marginal/intermittent nature of the threat, no watch is
anticipated.
..Bentley/Grams.. 03/12/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37419923 37649863 38029741 38269579 38159493 37839487
37419545 36889703 36579838 36609911 36949938 37419923SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 5:40 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Beckham, Blaine, Caddo, Canadian, Comanche, Custer and 11 more | 95 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.