Mesoscale Discussion 151

Issued

Mar 10, 2021, 3:44 PM CST (21:44 UTC)

Expired

Mar 10, 2021, 5:45 PM CST

In force

2 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Concerning

Severe potential...watch possible

Chance of a watch

40%

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

603 
ACUS11 KWNS 102145
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102144 
MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-OKZ000-102345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0151
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CST Wed Mar 10 2021

Areas affected...Eastern Kansas into west-central Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 102144Z - 102345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage and large hail will be possible in
southeastern Kansas into west-central Missouri, particularly by
early to mid-evening. With uncertain storm coverage and limited
buoyancy, the need for a WW is unclear. Trends will continue to be
monitored.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus has continued to develop in the immediate
vicinity of a dryline pushing into eastern Kansas. Warm air aloft
observed on this morning's TOP sounding continues to inhibit further
vertical development. Weak large-scale forcing for ascent will
remain farther north into Iowa and Minnesota. Later this afternoon
and evening, the cold front position across northern Kansas into
Nebraska will move southeastward. A few isolated storms may develop
in northern Missouri where low-level convergence will initially be
stronger. These storms may pose threat for strong winds, but will be
limited by weak buoyancy. In southeastern Kansas into west-central
Missouri, storm development will become more likely by early evening
as the low-level jet interacts with the advancing front. Elevated
storms will be capable of large hail with relatively steep mid-level
lapse rates, long hodographs, and 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE. Wind damage
will also be possible on a more isolated basis. Given the marginal
buoyancy and lack of deep-layer ascent, storm coverage is a bit
unclear. While a WW is possible, it is not certain. Trends will
continue to be monitored.

..Wendt/Kerr.. 03/10/2021

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   37899706 39739571 40379486 40429431 39849359 38759367
            37209546 36599678 36619745 37149766 37899706

Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2021Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.