Alert archive / Kansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1313
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 18, 2021, 11:14 AM CDT for 17 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 2 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 18, 2021, 11:14 AM CDT (16:14 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 18, 2021, 1:15 PM CDT
- In force
- 2 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 5%
Counties Barton County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Ellis County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Hodgeman County, KS, Lane County, KS, Logan County, KS, Ness County, KS, Pawnee County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Rush County, KS, Russell County, KS, Scott County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Trego County, KS
The radar
The Dodge City radar (KDDC), 144 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Dodge City, (KDDC), launched 12:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 525 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -92 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1199 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 23 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 15 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 53 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
879
ACUS11 KWNS 181614
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181614
KSZ000-181815-
Mesoscale Discussion 1313
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1114 AM CDT Sun Jul 18 2021
Areas affected...Portions of western/central KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 181614Z - 181815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may continue to pose an isolated hail/wind threat
for the next couple of hours. Watch issuance is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A band of storms associated with an MCV from earlier
convection has persisted this morning while moving slowly southward
from southern NE into parts of western/central KS. Low/mid-level
flow remains rather weak across this region per the 12Z sounding
from DDC and recent VWPs from KGLD/KUEX. Even so, these storms have
persisted longer than most short-term guidance would suggest, and
they will be moving into a destabilizing low-level airmass over the
next couple of hours across western/central KS. There is also some
modestly enhanced upper-level northwesterly flow present across this
region, which may be aiding storm intensities to some extent. A
couple instances of severe hail and strong/gusty winds appear
possible in the short-term with this convection, but the lack of
stronger deep-layer shear and boundary-layer instability should keep
the overall severe threat fairly isolated/marginal. Accordingly,
watch issuance is not expected at this time.
..Gleason/Dial.. 07/18/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39820064 39820008 39559958 39469898 39129851 38389859
38089914 37960042 38210118 39000137 39460129 39820064SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2:32 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Barber, Clark, Comanche, Edwards, Finney, Ford and 18 more | 2 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.