Alert archive / Maine / Mesoscale Discussions in 2021
Mesoscale Discussion 1014
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jun 19, 2021, 3:44 PM EDT for 8 counties in Maine. It was in force for 91 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jun 19, 2021, 3:44 PM EDT (19:44 UTC)
- Expired
- Jun 19, 2021, 5:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 91 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Concerning
- Severe potential...watch unlikely
- Chance of a watch
- 20%
Counties Hancock County, ME, Kennebec County, ME, Knox County, ME, Lincoln County, ME, Penobscot County, ME, Sagadahoc County, ME, Waldo County, ME, Washington County, ME
The radar
The Caribou radar (KCBW), 98 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Caribou, ME (KCAR), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 549 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 37 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 181 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 178 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
824
ACUS11 KWNS 191944
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191944
MEZ000-192115-
Mesoscale Discussion 1014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Sat Jun 19 2021
Areas affected...Eastern Maine
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 191944Z - 192115Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging winds are possible
through the early evening.
DISCUSSION...A line of storms which had previously struggled to
organize has strengthened in the last 15 to 30 minutes. This is
likely the result of these storms reaching better low-level
moisture/convergence where low-level flow is more backed and
advecting off the ocean. The KGYX VWP shows 50 knots of flow around
5 km which is sufficient for storm organization. This line of storms
is a combination of both bowing segments and embedded supercells.
The thermodynamic environment is not overly favorable with MLCAPE
around 500 J/kg, but isolated large hail, damaging wind, or even a
tornado remains possible. A watch is unlikely due to the limited
instability as well as the relatively short duration of the threat
before storms move offshore.
..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2021
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...
LAT...LON 43987025 45286943 46656827 47126793 47176732 46316757
45676729 45176692 44776690 44476717 43786858 43576993
43987025SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 19, 12:38 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Androscoggin, Aroostook, Franklin, Oxford, Piscataquis, Somerset | 97 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Maine, 2021Every mesoscale discussion in 2021
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.