Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2021

Flash Flood Warning 230, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

September 26, 2021Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 26, 2021, 11:57 AM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 5 hr. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Sep 26, 2021, 11:57 AM MST (18:57 UTC)
Expired: Sep 26, 2021, 5:00 PM MST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Considerable
Flood severity: None

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 58 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Sep 26, 12:15 PM MST	FLASH FLOOD	4 S Village At Oak Cree, AZ	HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE AREA LED TO THE DRY BEAVER CREEK RIVER GAUGE NEAR RIMROCK RISING 3.6 FEET IN 30 MINUTES FROM BASELINE FLOW OF 1.1 FEET AT 11:45 AM MST TO A CREST OF 4.7 FEET AT 12:15PM MST.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 58 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 14 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -123 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1029 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -26 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 139 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

704 
WGUS55 KFGZ 261857
FFWFGZ
AZC025-262200-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0230.210926T1857Z-210926T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1157 AM MST Sun Sep 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 300 PM MST.

* At 1154 AM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
  heavy rain falling across the warned area. Between 1 and 1.5 
  inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 
  0.75 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is 
  ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
           flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water
           crossings, creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mcguireville.

This includes the following highways...
	State Route 179 between mile markers 301 and 304.

This includes the following creeks, washes and rivers...
  Dry Beaver Creek, Jacks Canyon south of Sedona, Oak Creek, and 
  Beaver Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 11184 3477 11179 3474 11176 3468 11176
      3467 11179 3463 11181 3464 11184 3466 11185
      3468 11187 3474 11184

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

NL

4 follow-up statements

354 
WGUS75 KFGZ 261951
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1251 PM MST Sun Sep 26 2021

AZC025-262200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0230.000000T0000Z-210926T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai AZ-
1251 PM MST Sun Sep 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR AREAS BETWEEN VILLAGE OF OAK CREEK AND MCGUIREVILLE IN 
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 1247 PM MST, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated 
that light to moderate rain continues to fall across the warned 
area. Between 1.25 and 1.75 inches of rain have fallen. Additional 
rainfall amounts of 0.1 to 0.3 inches are possible in the warned 
area over the next hour. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to 
begin shortly.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding produced by heavy rain
         that fell earlier.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Mcguireville and mainly rural recreation areas south of the 
  Village of Oak Creek (Big Park).

This includes the following highways...
	State Route 179 between mile markers 301 and 304.

This includes the following creeks, washes and rivers...
  Dry Beaver Creek, Jacks Canyon south of Sedona, Oak Creek, and 
  Beaver Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 11184 3477 11179 3474 11176 3468 11176
      3467 11179 3463 11181 3464 11184 3466 11185
      3468 11187 3474 11184

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

NL

774 
WGUS75 KFGZ 262041
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
141 PM MST Sun Sep 26 2021

AZC025-262200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0230.000000T0000Z-210926T2200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai AZ-
141 PM MST Sun Sep 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR DRY BEAVER CREEK AND OTHER WASHES NEAR MCGUIREVILLE IN 
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 138 PM MST, gauge reports indicated that flash flooding is 
occurring in Dry Beaver Creek and is expected in other area 
drainages that flow southward towards McGuireville. Between 1.25 and 
1.75 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.1 
to 0.3 inches are possible in the warned area.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding is ongoing.

SOURCE...Gauges reported.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  McGuireville and mainly rural recreation areas south of the 
  Village of Oak Creek (Big Park).

This includes the following highways...
	State Route 179 between mile markers 301 and 304.

This includes the following creeks, washes and rivers...
  Dry Beaver Creek, Beaver Creek, Jacks Canyon south of Sedona and 
  Oak Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 11184 3477 11179 3474 11176 3468 11176
      3467 11179 3463 11181 3464 11184 3466 11185
      3468 11187 3474 11184

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

NL

780 
WGUS55 KFGZ 262144
FFWFGZ
AZC025-270000-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.W.0230.000000T0000Z-210927T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
244 PM MST Sun Sep 26 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Dry Beaver Creek and other nearby washes in...
  Yavapai County in west central Arizona...

* Until 500 PM MST.

* At 241 PM MST, gauge reports and Doppler radar indicated another 
  round of heavy rain falling across the warned area. Between 1.5 
  and 2.25 inches of rain have fallen over the last four hours. 
  Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.75 inches are possible in 
  the warned area. River gauges show continued flash flooding with 
  the potential for even further rises in Dry Beaver Creek and other 
  area washes.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Heavy rain producing
           flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Gauges reported.

  IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water
           crossings, creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  McGuireville and mainly rural recreation areas south of the 
  Village of Oak Creek (Big Park).

This includes the following highways...
	State Route 179 between mile markers 301 and 304.

This includes the following creeks, washes and rivers...
  Dry Beaver Creek, Beaver Creek, Jacks Canyon south of Sedona and 
  Oak Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 11184 3477 11179 3474 11176 3468 11176
      3467 11179 3463 11181 3464 11184 3466 11185
      3468 11187 3474 11184

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

NL

920 
WGUS75 KFGZ 262357
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
457 PM MST Sun Sep 26 2021

AZC025-270007-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0230.000000T0000Z-210927T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Yavapai AZ-
457 PM MST Sun Sep 26 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR 
YAVAPAI COUNTY...

At 450 PM MST, National Weather Service Flagstaff Doppler radar 
indicated only light rain falling from Oak Creek to Rimrock. River 
gages on Dry Beaver Creek indicated a 3.6 foot rise upstream from 
Rimrock, with levels currently receding.

Higher than normal flow will persist in Dry Beaver Creek through 
this evening, which may impact the crossing at Kimberleys Way. 
However, the threat for Flash Flooding has ended.

Please continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3477 11184 3477 11179 3474 11176 3468 11176
      3467 11179 3463 11181 3464 11184 3466 11185
      3468 11187 3474 11184

$$

Peterson

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 26, 10:34 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino, Navajo	3 hr
Sep 26, 11:28 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Gila	6 hr
Sep 26, 12:29 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Sep 26, 2:11 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Sep 26, 2:23 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		22 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2021 Every flash flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.