Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2021

Flash Flood Warning 131, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 29, 2021Gila County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 29, 2021, 8:12 PM MST for Gila County, Arizona. It was in force for 5 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 29, 2021, 8:12 PM MST (03:12 UTC)
Expired: Jul 30, 2021, 1:15 AM MST
In force: 5 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon
Damage threat: Considerable
Flood severity: None

County Gila County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 3.2 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 237 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -43 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3197 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 14 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 7 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 2 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

898 
WGUS55 KFGZ 300312
FFWFGZ
AZC007-300615-
/O.NEW.KFGZ.FF.W.0131.210730T0312Z-210730T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
812 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 1115 PM MST.

* At 810 PM MST, Automated stream gauges recorded flash flooding 
  moving down Tonto Creek. Between 2 and 3 inches of rain fell west 
  of Rye from 4 pm to 6 pm. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water
           crossings, creeks, normally dry washes and roads.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Gila County

This includes the following highways...
	State Route 188 between mile markers 267 and 271.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
 Rye Creek and Tonto Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 11133 3394 11133 3397 11132 3400 11130
      3402 11130 3403 11130 3404 11132 3406 11133
      3408 11135 3408 11134 3403 11127 3401 11127
      3399 11128 3397 11129 3396 11130 3394 11129
      3392 11130

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

AT

5 follow-up statements

007 
WGUS75 KFGZ 300351
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
851 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

AZC007-300615-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0131.000000T0000Z-210730T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
851 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR GILA COUNTY...

At 848 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated no rain falling over the area 
along Rye Creek and Tonto Creek. However, the automated stream gage 
along Tonto Creek near Gun Creek continues to record flow of around 
2000 cfs from earlier rainfall. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads. Low-water
         crossings over Tonto Creek will be impassable for the
         next several hours.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Gila County

This includes the following highways...
	State Route 188 between mile markers 267 and 269.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
 Rye Creek and Tonto Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 11133 3394 11133 3397 11132 3400 11130
      3402 11130 3403 11130 3404 11132 3406 11133
      3408 11135 3408 11134 3403 11127 3401 11127
      3399 11128 3397 11129 3396 11130 3394 11129
      3392 11130

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

AT

571 
WGUS75 KFGZ 300451
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
951 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

AZC007-300615-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0131.000000T0000Z-210730T0615Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
951 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1115 PM MST THIS 
EVENING FOR GILA COUNTY...

At 949 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated no rain falling over the area 
along Rye Creek and Tonto Creek. However, the automated stream gage 
along Tonto Creek near Gun Creek continues to record flow of around 
1700 cfs from earlier rainfall. Flash flooding is already occurring.

HAZARD...Life-threatening flash flooding.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads. Low-water
         crossings over Tonto Creek will be impassable for the
         next few hours.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Gila County

This includes the following highways...
	State Route 188 between mile markers 267 and 269.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
 Rye Creek and Tonto Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 11133 3394 11133 3397 11132 3400 11130
      3402 11130 3403 11130 3404 11132 3406 11133
      3408 11135 3408 11134 3403 11127 3401 11127
      3399 11128 3397 11129 3396 11130 3394 11129
      3392 11130

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

AT

709 
WGUS55 KFGZ 300546
FFWFGZ
AZC007-300815-
/O.EXT.KFGZ.FF.W.0131.000000T0000Z-210730T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1046 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

The National Weather Service in Flagstaff has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Gila County in east central Arizona...

* Until 115 AM MST.

* At 1044 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated no rain had fallen over 
  the area along Rye Creek and Tonto Creek for several hours. 
  However, the automated stream gage along Tonto Creek near Gun 
  Creek continues to record flow of around 1200 cfs from earlier 
  rainfall. Flash flooding is already occurring.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by upstream thunderstorms late
           this afternoon.

  SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

  IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water
           crossings, creeks, normally dry washes and roads. Low-
           water crossings over Tonto Creek will be impassable
           for the next few hours.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Gila County

This includes the following highways...
	State Route 188 between mile markers 267 and 269.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
 Rye Creek and Tonto Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 11133 3394 11133 3397 11132 3400 11130
      3402 11130 3403 11130 3404 11132 3406 11133
      3408 11135 3408 11134 3403 11127 3401 11127
      3399 11128 3397 11129 3396 11130 3394 11129
      3392 11130

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

AT

998 
WGUS75 KFGZ 300645
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1145 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

AZC007-300815-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0131.000000T0000Z-210730T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
1145 PM MST Thu Jul 29 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 115 AM MST FRIDAY FOR 
GILA COUNTY...

At 1144 PM MST, Doppler radar indicated no rain had fallen over the 
area along Rye Creek and Tonto Creek for several hours. However, the 
automated stream gage along Tonto Creek near Gun Creek continues to 
record flow of around 900 cfs from earlier rainfall. Flash flooding 
is already occurring.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by upstream thunderstorms late
         this afternoon.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Life-threatening flash flooding of low-water crossings,
         creeks, normally dry washes and roads. Low-water
         crossings over Tonto Creek will be impassable for the
         next few hours.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  mainly rural areas of Gila County

This includes the following highways...
	State Route 188 between mile markers 267 and 269.

This includes the following streams and drainages...
 Rye Creek and Tonto Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly or mountainous terrain, there are many low water crossings 
which will become dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross 
flooded roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3393 11133 3394 11133 3397 11132 3400 11130
      3402 11130 3403 11130 3404 11132 3406 11133
      3408 11135 3408 11134 3403 11127 3401 11127
      3399 11128 3397 11129 3396 11130 3394 11129
      3392 11130

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

AT

694 
WGUS75 KFGZ 300822
FFSFGZ

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
122 AM MST Fri Jul 30 2021

AZC007-300832-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.FF.W.0131.000000T0000Z-210730T0815Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Gila AZ-
122 AM MST Fri Jul 30 2021

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR GILA COUNTY...

Flood waters continue to recede in Tonto Creek according to gauge 
data. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please 
continue to heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3393 11133 3394 11133 3397 11132 3400 11130
      3402 11130 3403 11130 3404 11132 3406 11133
      3408 11135 3408 11134 3403 11127 3401 11127
      3399 11128 3397 11129 3396 11130 3394 11129
      3392 11130

$$

NL

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 29, 5:05 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Coconino	40 min
Jul 29, 5:35 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		25 min
Jul 29, 5:38 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	112 min
Jul 29, 6:45 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 29, 6:56 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Jul 30, 5:58 AM MST	Areal Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	5 hr
Jul 30, 11:34 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Navajo	2 hr
Jul 30, 12:44 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino	2 hr
Jul 30, 1:15 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Jul 30, 1:47 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Yavapai	3 hr
Jul 30, 2:01 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		29 min
Jul 30, 2:18 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	27 min
Jul 30, 4:09 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning Considerable damage threat	FGZ	Coconino, Gila	2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2021 Every flash flood warning in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.