Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2021

Flood Watch 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

March 10, 2021Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Mar 10, 2021, 3:09 AM EST for Erie County, New York. It took effect at Mar 10, 2021, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 39 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 10, 2021, 3:09 AM EST (08:09 UTC)
In effect from
Mar 10, 2021, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Mar 12, 2021, 3:53 AM EST
In force
39 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
None

County Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 20 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2021-03-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2021-03-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 48 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1956 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
138 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

912 
WGUS61 KBUF 100809
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
309 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

.Minor flooding from ice jams is possible later today through early 
Friday.

NYZ010-085-101615-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0002.210310T1800Z-210312T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
309 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of western New York, including the 
  following counties, Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* From 1 PM EST this afternoon through Friday morning

* Ice jams remain in place on Cazenovia Creek and Buffalo Creek near 
  the confluence of the two creeks. Much warmer temperatures today 
  through Thursday will accelerate snowmelt in the headwaters of the 
  creeks, resulting in higher flows and an increased risk of minor 
  flooding from ice jams. Rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50 inch late 
  Thursday and Thursday night will also increase runoff and result 
  in higher flows.

* A limited risk of flooding may develop if ice jams remain in 
  place. Flooding is possible upstream of the ice jams initially, 
  and flooding is also possible downstream of the ice jams if a 
  sudden release occurs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
9 follow-up statements
534 
WGUS61 KBUF 101005
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
505 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

.Minor flooding from ice jams is possible later today through early 
Friday.

NYZ010-085-101815-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.210310T1800Z-210312T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
505 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* From 1 PM EST this afternoon through Friday morning

* Ice jams remain in place on the lower reaches of Cazenovia Creek 
  and the Buffalo River in South Buffalo. Much warmer temperatures 
  today through Thursday will accelerate snowmelt in the headwaters 
  of the creeks, resulting in higher flows and an increased risk of 
  minor flooding from ice jams. Rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50 inch late 
  Thursday and Thursday night will also increase runoff and result 
  in higher flows.

* A limited risk of flooding may develop if ice jams remain in 
  place. Flooding is possible upstream of the ice jams initially, 
  and flooding is also possible downstream of the ice jams if a 
  sudden release occurs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
330 
WGUS61 KBUF 101448
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
948 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

.Minor flooding from ice jams is possible later today through early 
Friday.

NYZ010-085-102300-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.210310T1800Z-210312T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
948 AM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON 
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* From 1 PM EST this afternoon through Friday morning

* Ice jams remain in place on the lower reaches of Cazenovia Creek 
  and the Buffalo River in South Buffalo. Much warmer temperatures 
  today through Thursday will accelerate snowmelt in the headwaters 
  of the creeks, resulting in higher flows and an increased risk of 
  minor flooding from ice jams. Rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50 inch late 
  Thursday and Thursday night will also increase runoff and result 
  in higher flows.

* A limited risk of flooding may develop if ice jams remain in 
  place. Flooding is possible upstream of the ice jams initially, 
  and flooding is also possible downstream of the ice jams if a 
  sudden release occurs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

RSH
934 
WGUS61 KBUF 102203
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
503 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

.Minor flooding from ice jams is possible through early Friday.

NYZ010-085-110615-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210312T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
503 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY 
MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* Through Friday morning

* Ice jams remain in place on the lower reaches of Cazenovia Creek 
  and the Buffalo River in South Buffalo. Much warmer temperatures 
  through Thursday will accelerate snowmelt in the headwaters of the 
  creeks, resulting in higher flows and an increased risk of minor 
  flooding from ice jams. Rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50 inch late 
  Thursday through Thursday evening will also increase runoff and 
  result in higher flows.

* A limited risk of flooding may develop if ice jams remain in 
  place. Flooding is possible upstream of the ice jams initially, 
  and flooding is also possible downstream of the ice jams if a 
  sudden release occurs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

JLA
134 
WGUS61 KBUF 110355
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1055 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

.Minor flooding from ice jams is possible through early Friday.

NYZ010-085-111200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210312T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
1055 PM EST Wed Mar 10 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY 
MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* Through Friday morning

* Ice jams remain in place on the lower reaches of Cazenovia Creek 
  and the Buffalo River in South Buffalo. Much warmer temperatures 
  through Thursday will accelerate snowmelt in the headwaters of the 
  creeks, resulting in higher flows and an increased risk of minor 
  flooding from ice jams. Rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50 inch late 
  Thursday through Thursday evening will also increase runoff and 
  result in higher flows.

* A limited risk of flooding may develop if ice jams remain in 
  place. Flooding is possible upstream of the ice jams initially, 
  and flooding is also possible downstream of the ice jams if a 
  sudden release occurs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

JLA
755 
WGUS61 KBUF 110935
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
435 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021

.Minor flooding from ice jams is possible through early Friday.

NYZ010-085-111745-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210312T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
435 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY 
MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* Through Friday morning

* Ice jams remain in place on the lower reaches of Cazenovia Creek 
  and the Buffalo River in South Buffalo. Continued warm 
  temperatures today will accelerate snowmelt in the headwaters of 
  the creeks, resulting in higher flows and an increased risk of 
  minor flooding from ice jams. Rainfall of 0.25 to 0.50 inch this 
  afternoon through early tonight will also increase runoff and 
  result in higher flows.

* A limited risk of flooding may develop if ice jams remain in 
  place. Flooding is possible upstream of the ice jams initially, 
  and flooding is also possible downstream of the ice jams if a 
  sudden release occurs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

TMA
765 
WGUS61 KBUF 111246
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
746 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021

.Minor flooding from snow melt and isolated ice jams is possible 
through early Friday.

NYZ010-085-112100-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210312T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
746 AM EST Thu Mar 11 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR SNOW MELT AND ISOLATED ICE JAMS IN EFFECT FROM 1 
PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* Through Friday morning

* Near record high temperatures today will accelerate snow melt in 
  the headwaters of the creeks, resulting in higher flows and an 
  increased risk of minor flooding. Basin average rainfall of a 
  quarter inch this afternoon through early tonight will also 
  increase runoff and result in higher flows.

* A limited risk of minor flooding may develop due to significant 
  snowmelt from the rural areas and higher terrain south and east of 
  Buffalo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

RSH
080 
WGUS61 KBUF 111944
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
244 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021

.Minor flooding from snow melt and isolated ice jams is possible 
through early Friday.

NYZ010-085-120400-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210312T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
244 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR SNOW MELT AND ISOLATED ICE JAMS IN EFFECT THROUGH 
FRIDAY MORNING...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* Through Friday morning

* Near record high temperatures today will accelerate snow melt in 
  the headwaters of the creeks, resulting in higher flows and an 
  increased risk of minor flooding. Basin average rainfall of a 
  quarter inch this afternoon through early tonight will also 
  increase runoff and result in higher flows.

* A limited risk of minor flooding may develop due to significant 
  snowmelt from the rural areas and higher terrain south and east of 
  Buffalo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

RSH
103 
WGUS61 KBUF 120353
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1053 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021

.Minor flooding from snow melt and the rain that occurred Thursday 
evening is possible through early Friday.

NYZ010-085-121200-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210312T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
1053 PM EST Thu Mar 11 2021

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* Until 10 AM EST Friday

* Recent warm temperatures will result in higher flows and an 
  increased risk of minor flooding into Friday. Basin average 
  rainfall of a quarter inch that occurred this evening will also 
  increase runoff and result in higher flows.

* A limited risk of minor flooding may develop due to significant 
  snowmelt from the rural areas and higher terrain south and east of 
  Buffalo and from the rain that occurred on Thursday evening.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

JLA
638 
WGUS61 KBUF 120853
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
353 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021

NYZ010-085-121000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.FA.A.0002.000000T0000Z-210312T1500Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
353 AM EST Fri Mar 12 2021

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch for a portion of western New York, including the 
following areas, Northern Erie and Southern Erie has been cancelled.

Flows on the Buffalo area creeks will continue to gradually recede 
through this morning. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a 
threat.

$$

TMA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 10, 3:44 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF5 days

Nearby

Flood Watches in New York, 2021Every flood watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.