Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2021
Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY
NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Feb 28, 2021, 3:18 AM EST for Erie County, New York. It took effect at Feb 28, 2021, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 24 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Feb 28, 2021, 3:18 AM EST (08:18 UTC)
- In effect from
- Feb 28, 2021, 1:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Mar 1, 2021, 1:00 PM EST
- In force
- 24 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Buffalo, NY
- Flood severity
- None
County Erie County, NY
The radar
The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 20 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 648 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 81 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -36 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 32 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
615 WGUS61 KBUF 280818 FFABUF URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 318 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 .Ice jams may develop on some Buffalo area creeks this afternoon through early Monday afternoon. Ice jams can cause water to rise behind the ice jam or below the ice jam if it releases. NYZ010-085-281700- /O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0001.210228T1800Z-210301T1800Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Erie-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville 318 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ICE JAMS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flood Watch for a portion of western New York, including the following counties, Northern Erie and Southern Erie. * From 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon * The combination of light rain showers and snow melt from warm temperatures today will result in a risk for ice jams to develop. There is as much as 2 to 4 inches of snow water equivalent in the head waters of the Buffalo Creeks basins. Warm weather today will melt some of this snow pack, resulting in run-off and rising creek levels which are likely to cause ice to break up on some creeks. * Ice jams are possible on Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, Cayuga Creek, Buffalo River, and other typically vulnerable waterways. Ice jams are difficult to predict, and may cause water to rise behind the ice jam or below the jam if it releases. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to ice jam flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Apffel
4 follow-up statements
629 WGUS61 KBUF 281637 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1137 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 .Ice jams may develop on some Buffalo area creeks through early Monday afternoon. Ice jams can cause water to rise behind the ice jam or below the ice jam if it releases. NYZ010-085-010045- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.210228T1800Z-210301T1800Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Erie-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville 1137 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH FOR AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of western New York, including the following counties, Northern Erie and Southern Erie. * Through Monday afternoon * The combination of light rain showers and snow melt from warm temperatures will result in a risk for ice jams to develop. There is as much as 2 to 4 inches of snow water equivalent in the head waters of the Buffalo Creeks basins. Warm weather will melt some of this snow pack, resulting in run-off and rising creek levels which are likely to cause ice to break up on some creeks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ AR
498 WGUS61 KBUF 282353 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 653 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 .Ice jams may develop on some Buffalo area creeks tonight through early Monday afternoon. Ice jams can cause water to rise behind the ice jam or below the ice jam if it releases. NYZ010-085-010900- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1800Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Erie-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville 653 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of western New York, including the following counties, Northern Erie and Southern Erie. * Through Monday afternoon * The combination of light rain showers and snow melt from warm temperatures Sunday will result in a risk for ice jams to develop. There is as much as 2 to 4 inches of snow water equivalent in the head waters of the Buffalo Creeks basins. Warm weather Sunday has melted some of this snow pack, resulting in run-off and rising creek levels which are likely to cause some additional ice to break up on some creeks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Hitchcock
361 WGUS61 KBUF 010753 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 253 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 .Ice jams may develop on some Buffalo area creeks through early this afternoon. Ice jams can cause water to rise behind the ice jam or below the ice jam if it releases. NYZ010-085-011800- /O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1800Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Erie-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville 253 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH FOR AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... The Flood Watch continues for * A portion of western New York, including the following counties, Northern Erie and Southern Erie. * Until 1 PM EST this afternoon * There is a risk that ice jams will develop due to the combination of light rain showers and warm temperatures yesterday. There is a substantial snow pack in the head waters of the Buffalo Creeks basins and warm weather has melted some of this snow pack, resulting in additional run-off. As a result creek levels will continue to rise through this morning, with additional ice break up possible on some creeks. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. && $$ Apffel
962 WGUS61 KBUF 011811 FFABUF Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 111 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 NYZ010-085-011915- /O.EXP.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1800Z/ /00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Northern Erie-Southern Erie- Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville 111 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 ...FLOOD WATCH FOR AN ICE JAM HAS EXPIRED... The Flood Watch for a portion of western New York, including the following areas, Northern Erie and Southern Erie has expired. The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flows on area rivers and creeks will continue to slowly decrease through this evening. While there still remains some concern for ice jams on Cazenovia Creek, Buffalo Creek, and Cayuga Creek, with decreasing flows the threat for ice jams flooding has diminished. $$ AR
The office that day
Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 3:48 AM EST | Gale Watch | BUF | 15 hr | |
| Feb 28, 3:48 AM EST | Small Craft Advisory | BUF | 4 days | |
| Feb 28, 6:43 PM EST | Gale Warning | BUF | 30 hr | |
| Feb 28, 6:44 PM EST | Wind Advisory | BUF | Allegany, Cayuga, Genesee, Jefferson, Lewis, Livingston and 7 more | 30 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.