Alert archive / New York / Flood Watches in 2021

Flood Watch 1, NWS Buffalo, NY

February 28, 2021Erie County, New York

NWS Buffalo, NY issued this flood watch at Feb 28, 2021, 3:18 AM EST for Erie County, New York. It took effect at Feb 28, 2021, 1:00 PM EST. It was in force for 24 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Feb 28, 2021, 3:18 AM EST (08:18 UTC)
In effect from
Feb 28, 2021, 1:00 PM EST
Expired
Mar 1, 2021, 1:00 PM EST
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Buffalo, NY
Flood severity
None

County Erie County, NY

The radar

The Buffalo radar (KBUF), 21 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:23 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 20 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2021-02-28Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 00:00Z on 2021-02-28The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -36 square meters per square second.1939587897117136156Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
648 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
81 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
32 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

615 
WGUS61 KBUF 280818
FFABUF

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
318 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

.Ice jams may develop on some Buffalo area creeks this afternoon 
through early Monday afternoon. Ice jams can cause water to rise 
behind the ice jam or below the ice jam if it releases.

NYZ010-085-281700-
/O.NEW.KBUF.FA.A.0001.210228T1800Z-210301T1800Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
318 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR POTENTIAL ICE JAMS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...

The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a

* Flood Watch for a portion of western New York, including the 
  following counties, Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* From 1 PM EST this afternoon through Monday afternoon

* The combination of light rain showers and snow melt from warm 
  temperatures today will result in a risk for ice jams to develop. 
  There is as much as 2 to 4 inches of snow water equivalent in the 
  head waters of the Buffalo Creeks basins. Warm weather today will 
  melt some of this snow pack, resulting in run-off and rising creek 
  levels which are likely to cause ice to break up on some creeks.

* Ice jams are possible on Buffalo Creek, Cazenovia Creek, Cayuga 
  Creek, Buffalo River, and other typically vulnerable waterways. 
  Ice jams are difficult to predict, and may cause water to rise 
  behind the ice jam or below the jam if it releases.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to ice jam 
flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Apffel
4 follow-up statements
629 
WGUS61 KBUF 281637
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1137 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

.Ice jams may develop on some Buffalo area creeks through early 
Monday afternoon. Ice jams can cause water to rise behind the ice 
jam or below the ice jam if it releases.

NYZ010-085-010045-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.210228T1800Z-210301T1800Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
1137 AM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY 
AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* Through Monday afternoon

* The combination of light rain showers and snow melt from warm 
  temperatures will result in a risk for ice jams to develop. There 
  is as much as 2 to 4 inches of snow water equivalent in the head 
  waters of the Buffalo Creeks basins. Warm weather will melt some 
  of this snow pack, resulting in run-off and rising creek levels 
  which are likely to cause ice to break up on some creeks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

AR
498 
WGUS61 KBUF 282353
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
653 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

.Ice jams may develop on some Buffalo area creeks tonight through 
early Monday afternoon. Ice jams can cause water to rise behind the 
ice jam or below the ice jam if it releases.

NYZ010-085-010900-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1800Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
653 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR ICE JAMS REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY 
AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* Through Monday afternoon

* The combination of light rain showers and snow melt from warm 
  temperatures Sunday will result in a risk for ice jams to develop. 
  There is as much as 2 to 4 inches of snow water equivalent in the 
  head waters of the Buffalo Creeks basins. Warm weather Sunday has 
  melted some of this snow pack, resulting in run-off and rising 
  creek levels which are likely to cause some additional ice to 
  break up on some creeks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Hitchcock
361 
WGUS61 KBUF 010753
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

.Ice jams may develop on some Buffalo area creeks through early this 
afternoon. Ice jams can cause water to rise behind the ice jam or 
below the ice jam if it releases.

NYZ010-085-011800-
/O.CON.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1800Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
253 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR AN ICE JAM REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS 
AFTERNOON...

The Flood Watch continues for

* A portion of western New York, including the following counties, 
  Northern Erie and Southern Erie.

* Until 1 PM EST this afternoon

* There is a risk that ice jams will develop due to the combination 
  of light rain showers and warm temperatures yesterday. There is a 
  substantial snow pack in the head waters of the Buffalo Creeks 
  basins and warm weather has melted some of this snow pack, 
  resulting in additional run-off. As a result creek levels will 
  continue to rise through this morning, with additional ice break 
  up possible on some creeks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on 
current forecasts. You should monitor later forecasts and be alert 
for possible flood warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding 
should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Apffel
962 
WGUS61 KBUF 011811
FFABUF

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
111 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

NYZ010-085-011915-
/O.EXP.KBUF.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-210301T1800Z/
/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Erie-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Orchard Park, Buffalo, and Springville
111 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

...FLOOD WATCH FOR AN ICE JAM HAS EXPIRED...

The Flood Watch for a portion of western New York, including the 
following areas, Northern Erie and Southern Erie has expired.

The Flood Watch is cancelled. Flows on area rivers and creeks will 
continue to slowly decrease through this evening. While there still 
remains some concern for ice jams on Cazenovia Creek, Buffalo Creek, 
and Cayuga Creek, with decreasing flows the threat for ice jams 
flooding has diminished.

$$

AR

The office that day

Everything else NWS Buffalo, NY issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 28, 3:48 AM ESTGale WatchBUF15 hr
Feb 28, 3:48 AM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryBUF4 days
Feb 28, 6:43 PM ESTGale WarningBUF30 hr
Feb 28, 6:44 PM ESTWind AdvisoryBUFAllegany, Cayuga, Genesee, Jefferson, Lewis, Livingston and 7 more30 hr

Nearby

Flood Watches in New York, 2021Every flood watch in 2021

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.